Ilya Ivashka vs Kaichi Uchida | Jinan Qualifying Round of 16

UMPIRY

JinanQ16QualifyingHardMon 12 Oct · 12:00CENTER COURT · Next on

Ilya IvashkaATP #237 · BLR83%

VSStrong favourite · Ivashka I.

Kaichi UchidaATP #386 · JPN17%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Ivashka I.

83%17%

Clear edge for Ivashka I. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Ivashka I.6.4/10

Marginal edge

Uchida K.3.8/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+178 Hard Elo edgeSupports Ivashka I.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1538Supports Ivashka I.

Recent run6-match win streakSupports Ivashka I.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardInformative

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Ivashka I.

ELO1 806

Hard ELO1 724

Last 108–2

Age32

Height193 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $3.4M2026 $35K

ELO1 606

Hard ELO1 582

Last 102–8

Age32

Height180 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $709K2026 $77K

Ilya Ivashka faces Kaichi Uchida in the Jinan qualifying round of 16 on hard. Ilya Ivashka holds the paper edge — ranked #237, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 180-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Under pressure: In the tight moments, Ilya Ivashka has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 40 vs 8).
Last match: Ilya Ivashka handed Beibit Zhukayev a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–4 win.
Surface form: Ilya Ivashka 8 of 9, Kaichi Uchida 2 of 9 on hard recently — Ilya Ivashka the sharper of late.

Common opponents

0 shared · last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months. Surface form and ELO carry more weight here.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Ivashka I. leads 1–0

Ivashka I.September 2019Nur-Sultan CHHard6-1 6-4

Evidence

Ivashka I.Uchida K.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–22–8

Season win rate72% (33–13)22% (7–25)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18061606

Hard-court ELO17241582

Serve vs returnLast 24 vs 27 matches

1st-serve points won71%71%

Return points won40%33%

Aces / match4.04.9

ClutchLast 24 vs 27 matches

Break points saved56%56%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · Next on · Starts at 12:00

1This match: Ivashka I. v Uchida K.This match
2Draxl L. v Jasika O.Not before 13:30
3Walton A. v Cilic M.Not before 18:30

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · 12:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast26°C · Overcast

Wind5 km/h

Humidity33%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ilya Ivashka vs Kaichi Uchida — Jinan Qualifying Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-12/ivashka-vs-uchida-jinan-q16?utm_source=cite (as of 12 October 2026).