Ye Xin Ma vs Caty Mcnally — Memphis Round of 16

Memphis · WTA · Round of 16
CHN
Ye Xin Ma
#194WTA
1450ELO
1441Hard ELO
27 yrs
Last 10
WWLLWWLLWW
—
Sets
Thursday, 30 July 2026 ·
hard
Caty Mcnally
USA6
Caty Mcnally
#73WTA
1817ELO
1731Hard ELO
$711kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWWLLW
Xin Ma Y.
vs
Mcnally C.

Ye Xin Ma faces Caty Mcnally in the Memphis round of 16 on hard. Caty Mcnally holds the paper edge — ranked #73, a roughly 290-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Xin Ma Y.29%
Mcnally C.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mcnally C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Ye Xin Ma comes in with 0 days of rest and 50 games in 14d, vs Caty Mcnally's 1 and 32.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Ye Xin Ma has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 57 vs 32).
  • Last match: Caty Mcnally dropped the opening set before beating Xiy. Wang 4–6 6–3 7–6.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
2 common opponents · Xin Ma Y. 1–2 · Mcnally C. 0–2 · small sample
Both lost · same surface, 28 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Xin Ma Y.
3.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Mcnally C.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.4Hard Elo 1441
Surface ELO
8.6+290 Hard Elo edge
0.4Overall Elo 1450
ELO gap
9.6Overall Elo 1817
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.06 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.05 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.4Won 57% in Usa (53)
Country comfort
6.1Won 69% in Usa (51)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

28 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season
Xin Ma Y.Mcnally C.
1st serve in·Clear edge
57%
72%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
61%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
44%
Service points won·Even
58%
56%
Return points won·Even
44%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Xin Ma Y.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Mcnally C.

Mcnally C.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Xin Ma Y.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Xin Ma Y.Mcnally C.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
57
32
Break points saved·Dominant
54
24
Break points won·Clear edge
80
92
Deciding sets·Dominant
76
32
Tiebreaks·
—
35

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Xin Ma Y.Mcnally C.
Freshness·Slight edge
70
76

Xin Ma Y.: played today · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Mcnally C.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
28°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 72%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw