Kristina Liutova vs Caty Mcnally — Memphis Quarter-final

Memphis · WTA · Quarter-final
RUS
Kristina Liutova
#229WTA
1681ELO
1592Hard ELO
16 yrs
Last 10
WWWLWWWWWW
—
Sets
Friday, 31 July 2026 ·
hard
Caty Mcnally
USA6
Caty Mcnally
#73WTA
1817ELO
1731Hard ELO
$711kYTD
$3.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWLWWLL
Liutova K.
vs
Mcnally C.

Kristina Liutova faces Caty Mcnally in the Memphis quarter-final on hard. Caty Mcnally is the paper favourite — ranked #73, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage — but Kristina Liutova rides a 13-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Liutova K.36%
Mcnally C.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mcnally C. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Liutova K.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Mcnally C.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.3Hard Elo 1592
Surface ELO
6.7+139 Hard Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1681
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1817
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
9.49 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.86 of last 10 on hard
10.013-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.2Won 70% in Usa (44)
Country comfort
6.2Won 69% in Usa (52)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 10 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

21 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
Liutova K.Mcnally C.
1st serve in·Even
70%
72%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
42%
Service points won·Even
58%
55%
Return points won·Slight edge
52%
45%
Break points saved·Even
61%
57%
Aces / match·Even
0.6
1.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.9
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Liutova K.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Mcnally C.

Mcnally C.serving49% hold

wins 49% of points on serve vs Liutova K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Liutova K.Mcnally C.
Freshness·Clear edge
66
79

Liutova K.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 62 games (7d) · Mcnally C.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 62%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw