Polina Kudermetova vs Varvara LepchenkoWashington Qualifying Final

Washington · WTA · Qualifying Final
#111WTA
1727ELO
1646Hard ELO
23 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 26 July 2026 ·
hard
JOHN HARRIS · 1st on
#175WTA
1578ELO
1559Hard ELO
40 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLWLWWL
Kudermetova P.
4-6 7-6 6-4
Lepchenko V.
Kudermetova P.
47962
Lepchenko V.
66741

Polina Kudermetova won the final of the Washington hard-court tournament, defeating Varvara Lepchenko 4-6, 7-6, 6-4. Kudermetova hit 4 aces and 7 double faults, while winning 78 percent of her first serves and converting 31 percent of break points. Lepchenko had 5 aces, 6 double faults, 63 percent first-serve wins, and 67 percent break-point conversions, as both players earned 4 service breaks.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-10-28MeridaR16hardPolina Kudermetova6-3 6-4
2023-09-15GuadalajaraQ32hardVarvara Lepchenko6-1 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
41%
Service points won·Even
58%
55%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
43%
Break points saved·Even
57%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
3.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.0
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
51
7
Break points saved·Dominant
77
17
Break points won·Dominant
96
46
Deciding sets·Clear edge
29
10
Tiebreaks·
30

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Kudermetova P.74%
Lepchenko V.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kudermetova P. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.1+88 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1559
6.9Overall Elo 1727
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1578
4.3Trails 1–2 on hard
H2H
5.7Leads 2–1 on hard
5.76 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Country comfort
6.0Won 67% in Usa (51)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
84
63

Kudermetova P.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 23 games (7d) · Lepchenko V.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 75 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 69%

Draw