Clara Tauson vs Ajla Tomljanovic

Athens · WTA · Round of 32

DEN

Clara Tauson

#25WTA

1802ELO

1775Hard ELO

$792kYTD

$5.2MCAREER

23 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLWWLLLLLL

—

Sets

Monday, 13 July 2026 · 12:00

hard

AUS

Ajla Tomljanovic

#94WTA

1745ELO

1723Hard ELO

33 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLWWWLWWWL

Tauson C.

Tomljanovic A.

Clara Tauson faces Ajla Tomljanovic in the Athens round of 32 on hard. Clara Tauson holds the paper edge — ranked #25, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage. They have met 4 times, the series level at 2–2, Ajla Tomljanovic ahead 2–1 on hard.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:20 UTC

Tauson C.66%

Tomljanovic A.34%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Tauson C. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Serve & return: Clara Tauson brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 55), Ajla Tomljanovic the stronger return game (Return Rating 49).
Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 2–2, 1–2 on hard. Last met at Adelaide 2026.
Fatigue load: Ajla Tomljanovic carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Tauson C.

6.1

Even matchUmpiry Score

Tomljanovic A.

6.4

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

5.7+53 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.3Hard Elo 1723

5.8Overall Elo 1802

ELO gap

4.2Overall Elo 1745

3.1Trails 1–3 on hard

H2H

6.9Leads 3–1 on hard

4.65 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

6.16 of last 10 on hard

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

7.0Grass → Hard

Surface transition

7.0Grass → Hard

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Tauson C.Stable

Tomljanovic A.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

13 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season

Tauson C.Tomljanovic A.

1st serve in·Slight edge

63%

68%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

72%

63%

2nd serve points won·Even

40%

44%

Service points won·Even

60%

57%

Return points won·Even

42%

45%

Break points saved·Even

57%

59%

Aces / match·Dominant

7.1

2.1

Double faults / match·Dominant

3.1

5.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Tauson C.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Tomljanovic A.

Tomljanovic A.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Tauson C.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Tauson C.Tomljanovic A.

Clutch Rating·Even

Break points saved·Clear edge

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Clear edge

Tiebreaks·Even

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on hard

Tauson C.Tomljanovic A.

Serve

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Tauson C.Tomljanovic A.

Freshness·Even

Tauson C.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Tomljanovic A.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

34°CPartly cloudy

Wind 11 km/hHumidity 32%

Head to head

2–2

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-01-12	Adelaide	R32	hard	Ajla Tomljanovic	7-6(5) 0-0 RET
2025-10-13	Ningbo	R32	hard	Ajla Tomljanovic	1-6 7-6(4) 6-3
2025-08-07	Cincinnati	R64	hard	Clara Tauson	6-3 6-7(5) 6-4
2021-04-12	Charleston 2	R16	clay	Clara Tauson	6-1 6-4