Nao Hibino vs Miriana Tona — Athens Qualifying Final

Athens · WTA · Qualifying Final
Nao Hibino
JPN
Nao Hibino
#246WTA
1560ELO
1523Hard ELO
31 yrs · 163 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWWLWWL
—
Sets
Sunday, 12 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 3 · 1st on
ITA
Miriana Tona
#379WTA
1275ELO
1276Hard ELO
31 yrs
Last 10
WLLLWLLWLW
Hibino N.
vs
Tona M.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC
Hibino N.84%
Tona M.16%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Hibino N. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Hibino N.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Tona M.
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
8.1+248 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.9Hard Elo 1276
7.2Overall Elo 1560
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1275
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.55 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.88 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Hibino N.Stable
Tona M.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 26 matches

Statistics

This season
Hibino N.Tona M.
1st serve in·Even
69%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
46%
Service points won·Even
58%
54%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
48%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.4
1.0
Double faults / match·Even
2.3
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Hibino N.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Tona M.

Tona M.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Hibino N.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Hibino N.Tona M.
Freshness·
100
—

Hibino N.: 17 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
35°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 28%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw — qualifying