Lilli Tagger vs Madison SiegAthens Qualifying Final

Athens · WTA · Qualifying Final
#82WTA
1684ELO
1687Hard ELO
18 yrs · 185 cm
Last 10
LLLLWLWLWL
Sets
Sunday, 12 July 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#397WTA
1237ELO
1228Hard ELO
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLWLLWW
Tagger L.
vs
Sieg M.

Lilli Tagger faces Madison Sieg in the Athens qualifying final on hard. Lilli Tagger holds the paper edge — ranked #82, a roughly 460-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC
Tagger L.94%
Sieg M.6%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Tagger L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
3.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
10.0+460 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
0.0Hard Elo 1228
8.8Overall Elo 1684
ELO gap
1.2Overall Elo 1237
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.86 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.85 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Tagger L.Cooling
Sieg M.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

30 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
68%
66%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
67%
55%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
46%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
52%
Return points won·Even
43%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
51%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.2
1.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Tagger L.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Sieg M.

Sieg M.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Tagger L.

Serve advantage — Tagger L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
96

Tagger L.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

1st on CENTER COURT · not before Starting at 5:00 PM · up next on court

  1. 1Tagger L. v Sieg M.This match
  2. 2Micic E. v Kulikova A.

Conditions

Weather forecast
35°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 28%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.