Nicolas Mejia vs Juan Pablo Varillas — Bogota Semi-final

Bogota · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
Nicolas Mejia
COL1
Nicolas Mejia
#122ATP
1477ELO
1488Clay ELO
$142kYTD
$524kCAREER
26 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 11 July 2026 ·
clay
Court 1 · 2nd on
Juan Pablo Varillas
PER4
Juan Pablo Varillas
#236ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
Mejia N.
6-4 5-7 6-1
Varillas J.
Mejia N.
6562
Varillas J.
4711

Nicolas Mejia defeated Juan Pablo Varillas in the Bogota semifinals. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 5-7, 6-1 in favor of Mejia. Mejia served 9 aces to Varillas' 3 and won 4 service breaks to Varillas' 2.

Key context

  • Match story: Nicolas Mejia came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–4 5–7 6–1.

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2019-05-11M25 Pensacola 1SFclayJuan Pablo Varillas6-4 6-3

Statistics

This season
Mejia N.Varillas J.
1st serve in·Even
60%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
60%
Return points won·Even
38%
42%
Break points saved·Even
62%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.0
2.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Mejia N.Varillas J.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
26
31
Break points saved·Slight edge
74
68
Break points won·Dominant
6
45
Deciding sets·Even
40
44
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
38
29

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Mejia N.61%
Varillas J.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mejia N. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mejia N.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Varillas J.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.7+57 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.3Clay Elo 1431
5.5Overall Elo 1477
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1440
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
5.55 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.85 of last 10 on clay
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Mejia N.Varillas J.
Freshness·Clear edge
76
100

Mejia N.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d) · Varillas J.: 18 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
19°CDrizzle
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 53%

Draw