Linda Noskova vs Elise Mertens — Wimbledon Quarter-final

Wimbledon · WTA · Quarter-final
Linda Noskova
CZE
Linda Noskova
#12WTA
1976ELO
1844Grass ELO
$1.3MYTD
$5.9MCAREER
21 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWWWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
grass
Elise Mertens
BEL
Elise Mertens
#27WTA
1894ELO
1750Grass ELO
$1.6MYTD
$19MCAREER
30 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLWLW
Noskova L.
vs
Mertens E.

Linda Noskova faces Elise Mertens in the Wimbledon quarter-final on grass. Linda Noskova holds the paper edge — ranked #12, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 90-point grass Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:20 UTC
Noskova L.70%
Mertens E.30%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Noskova L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Noskova L.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Mertens E.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.2+95 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Grass Elo 1750
5.5Overall Elo 1976
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1894
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
9.09 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
7.57 of last 10 on grass
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
5.7Won 62% in GBR (39)
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Noskova L.Stable
Mertens E.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

18 vs 13 matches

Statistics

This season
Noskova L.Mertens E.
1st serve in·Even
58%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
48%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
47%
Break points saved·Clear edge
66%
52%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.3
4.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.6
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Noskova L.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Mertens E.

Mertens E.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Noskova L.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Noskova L.Mertens E.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
80
Break points saved·Slight edge
97
90
Break points won·Even
92
96
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
76
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
99
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Noskova L.Mertens E.
Freshness·Slight edge
65
73

Noskova L.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 76 games (7d) · Mertens E.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 52%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kostovic T.
6-26-3
Oliynykova O.
Kessler M.
0-60-6
Ostapenko J.
Dart H.
6-33-66-4
Ruzic A.
Semenistaja D.
6-33-66-3
Fernandez L.[22]
Tjen J.
1-66-73
Xu M.
Kasatkina D.
2-66-32-6
Gasanova A.
Arango E.
6-36-1
Jacquemot E.
Osaka N.[14]
1-65-7
Muchova K.[10]
Zakharova A.
6-36-2
Andreescu B.
Zhang S.
6-736-76
Parks A.
Dudeney A.
6-36-3
Sawangkaew M.
Chwalinska M.[20]
2-67-56-2
Siniakova K.[32]
Zheng Q.
6-46-4
Stearns P.
Bartunkova N.
4-66-35-7
Krejcikova B.
Klugman H.
6-16-4
Linette M.
Andreeva M.[5]
5-74-6
Pegula J.[4]
Vidmanova D.
7-56-3
Sorribes Tormo S.
Jimenez Kasintseva V.
6-26-3
Yastremska D.
Ito A.
7-614-67-5
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Potapova A.[27]
6-26-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Udvardy P.
6-46-2
Tararudee L.
Tagger L.
7-635-76-4
Putintseva Y.
Maria T.
4-64-6
J. Cristian
Jovic I.[16]
6-710-6
Bencic B.[11]
Stojsavljevic M.
6-26-1
Wang X.
Cocciaretto E.
6-32-66-2
Jones F.
Parry D.
4-64-6
Frech M.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-754-6
Li A.[28]
Sonmez Z.
5-76-14-6
Liu C.
Vandewinkel H.
4-66-36-4
Sierra S.
Bondar A.
6-35-77-5
Korpatsch T.
Gauff C.[7]
2-61-6
Svitolina E.[8]
Snigur D.
5-72-6
Erjavec V.
Jeanjean L.
4-66-46-76
Tomljanovic A.
Bolkvadze M.
2-66-24-6
Krueger A.
Vekic D.[31]
3-67-636-4
Navarro E.[23]
Badosa P.
4-66-37-5
Selekhmeteva O.
Kraus S.
6-17-5
Starodubtseva Y.
Blinkova A.
7-634-61-6
N. Podoroska
Kostyuk M.[12]
1-62-6
Paolini J.[13]
Montgomery R.
0-66-47-5
Shymanovich I.
Golubic V.
2-66-21-6
Kalinina A.
Rakhimova K.
6-44-65-7
Sakkari M.
Tauson C.[24]
6-36-3
Eala A.[29]
Zarazua R.
6-16-2
S. Williams
Joint M.
3-67-663-6
Valentova T.
Pliskova K.
3-64-6
Townsend T.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-66-23-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Gjorcheska L.
6-36-2
Marcinko P.
Kenin S.
6-744-6
Begu I.
Swan K.
4-64-6
Day K.
Keys M.[26]
7-654-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Bejlek S.
6-17-66
Birrell K.
Korneeva A.
6-30-66-2
Osorio C.
Waltert S.
6-26-1
Seidel E.
Noskova L.[9]
4-63-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Lys E.
7-56-1
Kudermetova P.
Samsonova L.
3-63-6
Boulter K.
Grant T.
4-62-6
Gibson T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
1-66-32-6
Mertens E.[25]
Siegemund L.
6-26-4
Haddad Maia B.
Timofeeva M.
3-62-6
Ruse E.
Mcnally C.
5-73-6
Boisson L.
Rybakina E.[2]
4-66-13-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Kessler M.
6-17-69
Ostapenko J.
Ruzic A.
6-26-0
Tjen J.
Kasatkina D.
7-651-64-6
Gasanova A.
Osaka N.[14]
3-62-6
Muchova K.[10]
Zhang S.
6-36-2
Parks A.
Sawangkaew M.
5-70-6
Siniakova K.[32]
Bartunkova N.
2-64-6
Krejcikova B.
Andreeva M.[5]
4-67-56-4
Pegula J.[4]
Sorribes Tormo S.
7-666-1
Yastremska D.
Bouzas Maneiro J.
3-67-612-6
Alexandrova E.[18]
Tararudee L.
7-57-5
Maria T.
Jovic I.[16]
1-62-6
Bencic B.[11]
Wang X.
7-56-0
Parry D.
Kalinskaya A.[19]
4-66-36-78
Sonmez Z.
Liu C.
5-73-6
Sierra S.
Gauff C.[7]
3-66-36-77
Snigur D.
Jeanjean L.
6-46-3
Bolkvadze M.
Krueger A.
1-60-6
Navarro E.[23]
Selekhmeteva O.
3-66-46-1
Blinkova A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
7-653-63-6
Paolini J.[13]
Golubic V.
7-606-4
Rakhimova K.
Sakkari M.
3-66-06-77
Eala A.[29]
Joint M.
3-66-26-0
Pliskova K.
Swiatek I.[3]
1-63-6
Anisimova A.[6]
Kenin S.
6-24-67-63
Swan K.
Keys M.[26]
1-64-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Birrell K.
6-36-4
Osorio C.
Noskova L.[9]
3-66-42-6
Shnaider D.[15]
Samsonova L.
4-66-42-6
Grant T.
Bouzkova M.[21]
5-73-6
Mertens E.[25]
Timofeeva M.
2-66-36-0
Mcnally C.
Rybakina E.[2]
1-62-6
Sabalenka A.[1]
Ostapenko J.
6-46-4
Kasatkina D.
Osaka N.[14]
1-63-6
Muchova K.[10]
Sawangkaew M.
6-27-61
Bartunkova N.
Krejcikova B.
3-65-7
Pegula J.[4]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-16-3
Alexandrova E.[18]
Jovic I.[16]
3-66-34-6
Bencic B.[11]
Kalinskaya A.[19]
6-44-67-66
Liu C.
Gauff C.[7]
3-67-652-6
Snigur D.
Krueger A.
3-62-6
Navarro E.[23]
Kostyuk M.[12]
2-66-41-6
Paolini J.[13]
Sakkari M.
6-16-2
Eala A.[29]
Swiatek I.[3]
7-696-2
Anisimova A.[6]
Keys M.[26]
6-32-63-6
Cirstea S.[17]
Noskova L.[9]
6-23-66-79
Samsonova L.
Bouzkova M.[21]
6-46-734-6
Mertens E.[25]
Rybakina E.[2]
7-646-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Osaka N.[14]
2-66-72
Muchova K.[10]
Krejcikova B.
7-55-76-3
Pegula J.[4]
Jovic I.[16]
4-66-36-1
Bencic B.[11]
Gauff C.[7]
6-43-64-6
Krueger A.
Kostyuk M.[12]
4-64-6
Paolini J.[13]
Eala A.[29]
6-44-66-3
Keys M.
Noskova L.
4-66-72
Bouzkova M.
Mertens E.
4-64-6
Osaka N.
Muchova K.
Pegula J.
Gauff C.
Kostyuk M.
Paolini J.
Noskova L.
Mertens E.
—
—
—