Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo vs Juan EstevezPiracicaba Round of 32

Piracicaba · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#582ATP
1224ELO
1233Clay ELO
21 yrs
Last 10
LWLLWWLWWW
Sets
Wednesday, 24 June 2026 ·
clay
QUADRA 6 · 1st on
#343ATP
1180ELO
1173Clay ELO
20 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWLLL
Aguilar Cardozo J.
vs
Estevez J.

Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo faces Juan Estevez in the Piracicaba round of 32 on clay. Juan Estevez holds the paper edge — ranked #343. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC
Aguilar Cardozo J.60%
Estevez J.40%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Aguilar Cardozo J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.8+61 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Clay Elo 1173
5.5Overall Elo 1224
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1180
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
4.75 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

12 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
49%
Service points won·Even
58%
58%
Return points won·Even
46%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
54%
Aces / match·Even
1.0
1.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (12 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Aguilar Cardozo J.serving52% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Estevez J.

Estevez J.serving50% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Aguilar Cardozo J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
85
58

Aguilar Cardozo J.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d) · Estevez J.: 3 days rest · 4 matches, 96 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

1st on QUADRA 6 · not before Starts At 16:00 · up next on court

  1. 1Aguilar Cardozo J. v Estevez J.This match
  2. 2Andrade Da Silva L. v Huertas Del Pino C.
  3. 3De La Fuente S. v Rodriguez Taverna S.

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
21°CDrizzle
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 92%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.