Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel AmbrogiPiracicaba Round of 32

Piracicaba · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#409ATP
1398ELO
1391Clay ELO
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWLWLWL
Sets
Monday, 22 June 2026 ·
clay
#324ATP
1298ELO
1290Clay ELO
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWWWLW
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
vs
Ambrogi L.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida faces Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi in the Piracicaba round of 32 on clay. Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi holds the paper edge — ranked #324.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:20 UTC
Pucinelli De Almeida M.67%
Ambrogi L.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Pucinelli De Almeida M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.3+102 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.7Clay Elo 1290
6.3Overall Elo 1398
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1298
7.8Leads 2–0 on clay
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on clay
5.86 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.88 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

10 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Even
55%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
50%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.7
2.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.5
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

wins 51% of points on serve vs Ambrogi L.

Ambrogi L.serving45% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Pucinelli De Almeida M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
2
4
Break points saved·Slight edge
36
27
Break points won·Even
43
45
Deciding sets·Slight edge
3
13
Tiebreaks·Even
2
5

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
91
53

Pucinelli De Almeida M.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Ambrogi L.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 112 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.