Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena — Parma Quarter-final
Ofner S.
Sebastian Ofner faces Roberto Carballes Baena in the Parma quarter-final on clay. Sebastian Ofner is the paper favourite — ranked #123, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage — but Roberto Carballes Baena arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on clay to Sebastian Ofner's 4. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, Sebastian Ofner ahead 1–0 on clay.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Ofner S. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Sebastian Ofner comes in with 2 days of rest and 19 games in 14d, vs Roberto Carballes Baena's 1 and 159.
- Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1, 1–0 on clay. Last met at Rome Masters 2025.
- Surface form: Sebastian Ofner 4 of 10, Roberto Carballes Baena 7 of 10 on clay recently — Roberto Carballes Baena the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadOfner S.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Carballes Baena R.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 108 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | R128 | clay | Sebastian Ofner | 6-3 0-0 RET |
| 2024-01-08 | Auckland | R16 | hard | Roberto Carballes Baena | 7-5 6-3 |