Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki — Nottingham Round of 16
Mcdonald M.
Mackenzie Mcdonald faces Shintaro Mochizuki in the Nottingham round of 16 on grass. Mackenzie Mcdonald holds the paper edge — ranked #125, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 30-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Mcdonald M. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Mackenzie Mcdonald leads on Serve Rating (19), Shintaro Mochizuki on Return Rating (48).
- Freshness: Mackenzie Mcdonald comes in with 1 days of rest and 139 games in 14d, vs Shintaro Mochizuki's 1 and 110.
- Last match: Mackenzie Mcdonald dropped the opening set before beating Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 3–6 6–3 6–2.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMcdonald M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 26 games (7d) · Mochizuki S.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
2–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | Athens | Q2 | hard | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 4-6 6-2 6-2 |
| 2022-09-26 | Seoul | R16 | hard | Mackenzie Mcdonald | 6-3 6-4 |