Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola — Nottingham Quarter-final
Mochizuki S.
Shintaro Mochizuki faces Remy Bertola in the Nottingham quarter-final on grass. Shintaro Mochizuki is the paper favourite — ranked #129, a roughly 80-point grass Elo advantage — but Remy Bertola has won their only previous meeting, though none on grass. Remy Bertola brings the better recent grass form (4 of 4).
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Bertola R. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Shintaro Mochizuki 87 games in 14 days, Remy Bertola 172.
- Last match: Remy Bertola dropped just 6 games past Yibing Wu.
- Last match: Shintaro Mochizuki edged Mackenzie Mcdonald in two tight sets (7–6 7–5).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadMochizuki S.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 35 games (7d) · Bertola R.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 91 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | Roland Garros | QF | clay | Remy Bertola | 2-6 6-3 6-0 |