Shintaro Mochizuki vs Mackenzie McdonaldSurbiton CH Round of 16

Surbiton CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#115ATP
1475ELO
1520Grass ELO
$243kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 3 June 2024
grass
#140ATP
1606ELO
1541Grass ELO
$240kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
Mochizuki S.
2-6 6-4 6-2
Mcdonald M.
Mochizuki S.
2662
Mcdonald M.
6421

Shintaro Mochizuki defeated Mackenzie Mcdonald 2-6 6-4 6-2 in the Surbiton CH round of 16 on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Mackenzie Mcdonald came in leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 32, but Shintaro Mochizuki had been the form player, winning 8 of their last 10 on grass. Shintaro Mochizuki claimed a first win over Mackenzie Mcdonald in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-02AthensQ2hardMackenzie Mcdonald4-6 6-2 6-2
2022-09-26SeoulR16hardMackenzie Mcdonald6-3 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Mochizuki S.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Mcdonald M.

Mcdonald M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Mochizuki S.

Serve advantage — Mcdonald M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
54%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
Return points won·Even
41%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.0
4.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.1
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (153 vs 141). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
52
56
Break points saved·Clear edge
74
96
Break points won·Slight edge
55
66
Deciding sets·Even
47
45
Tiebreaks·Dominant
80
44

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
3.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
5.1Grass Elo 1520
Surface ELO
4.9+22 Grass Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1475
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1606
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.1
Surface form
5.6
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 7
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
9.2
4.0
3-set count
7.0
3.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
86
92

Mochizuki S.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Mcdonald M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast