Pablo Carreno Busta vs Sebastian Baez — Valencia CH Round of 16

Valencia CH · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP
Pablo Carreno Busta
#70ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
34 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 12 May 2026
clay
Sebastian Baez
ARG
Sebastian Baez
#57ATP
1760ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWWWW
Carreno Busta P.
5-7 7-5 7-5
Baez S.
Carreno Busta P.
5772
Baez S.
7551

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Sebastian Baez 5-7 7-5 7-5 in the Valencia CH round of 16 on clay. The result followed the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in leading the head-to-head 2–1. Pablo Carreno Busta extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

2–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-17Winston-SalemR32hardSebastian Baez7-5 6-2
2022-10-24BaselR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-2 6-1
2022-04-11Monte Carlo MastersR64clayPablo Carreno Busta6-4 4-6 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baez S.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Carreno Busta P.Baez S.
—
Serve
1
—
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Carreno Busta P.Baez S.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
72%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
54%
Service points won·Even
63%
62%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Clear edge
52%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.6
1.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.4
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Carreno Busta P.Baez S.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
79
88
Break points saved·Even
97
96
Break points won·Dominant
61
86
Deciding sets·Slight edge
81
89
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
95
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Carreno Busta P.Baez S.
Freshness·
—
100

Baez S.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Final
Kecmanovic M.
Vallejo A.
6-23-66-2
Semi-finals
Kecmanovic M.
Tabilo A.
7-606-3
Vallejo A.
Munar J.
4-67-636-4
Quarter-finals
Munar J.
Carreno Busta P.
W/O
Tabilo A.
Lajovic D.
4-67-56-4
Kecmanovic M.
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-16-1
Vallejo A.
Bergs Z.
6-46-3
R16
Vallejo A.
Alvarez Varona N.
7-636-0
Munar J.
Dzumhur D.
6-27-64
Bergs Z.
Bautista Agut R.
6-756-36-3
Carreno Busta P.
Baez S.
5-77-57-5
Tabilo A.
Kovacevic A.
6-36-1
Lajovic D.
Altmaier D.
3-67-57-65
Ugo Carabelli C.
Berrettini M.
7-626-4
Kecmanovic M.
Riedi L.
6-36-2
R32
Bautista Agut R.
Martinez P.
6-36-1
Baez S.
Carballes Baena R.
6-46-2
Carreno Busta P.
Comesana F.
6-46-3
Dzumhur D.
Sanchez Quilez A.
6-16-736-4
Kovacevic A.
Merida Aguilar D.
6-35-76-2
Lajovic D.
Oconnell C.
6-46-3
Berrettini M.
Daniel T.
6-46-2
Riedi L.
Prado Angelo J.
6-756-16-3
Kecmanovic M.
Budkov Kjaer N.
6-46-4
Alvarez Varona N.
Struff J.
6-15-76-2
Vallejo A.
Zapata Miralles B.
6-16-1
Altmaier D.
Squire H.
6-36-3