Pablo Carreno Busta vs Sebastian BaezBasel Round of 32

Basel · ATP · Round of 32
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
34 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 24 October 2022
hard
#57ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Carreno Busta P.
6-2 6-1
Baez S.
Carreno Busta P.
662
Baez S.
210

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Sebastian Baez 6-2 6-1 in the Basel round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Sebastian Baez came in ranked #57. Pablo Carreno Busta extended the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

11
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-08-17Winston-SalemR32hardSebastian Baez7-5 6-2
2022-04-11Monte Carlo MastersR64clayPablo Carreno Busta6-4 4-6 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baez S.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Baez S.
21
Serve
5
44
Return
63

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Even
39%
40%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.6
2.0
Double faults / match·Even
1.9
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (183 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
78
87
Break points saved·Even
97
96
Break points won·Dominant
61
86
Deciding sets·Slight edge
80
88
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
95
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
4.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
5.3+35 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.7Hard Elo 1709
5.2Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
4.8Overall Elo 1759
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.6
Surface form
1.5
Fatigue & Travel
5.6
Minutes 14d
6.2
7.0
3-set count
Prev. match
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
89
94

Carreno Busta P.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Baez S.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast