Sebastian Baez vs Pablo Carreno BustaWinston-Salem Round of 32

Winston-Salem · ATP · Round of 32
#57ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 17 August 2025
hard
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Baez S.
7-5 6-2
Carreno Busta P.
Baez S.
762
Carreno Busta P.
520

Sebastian Baez defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 7-5 6-2 in the Winston-Salem round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's semi-final. Sebastian Baez claimed a first win over Pablo Carreno Busta in three meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 2–1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-10-24BaselR32hardPablo Carreno Busta6-2 6-1
2022-04-11Monte Carlo MastersR64clayPablo Carreno Busta6-4 4-6 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Baez S.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Serve advantage — Carreno Busta P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Baez S.Carreno Busta P.
5
Serve
21
63
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
72%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
64%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Even
58%
59%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.7
3.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (79 vs 91). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
87
78
Break points saved·Even
96
97
Break points won·Dominant
86
61
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
80
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
83
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1709
Surface ELO
5.3+35 Hard Elo edge
4.8Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1801
0.0
H2H
10.0
1.4
Surface form
6.2
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
8.3
Minutes 14d
9.0
9.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
8.5

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
94
89

Baez S.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast