Flavio Cobolli vs Frances TiafoeAcapulco Final

Acapulco · ATP · Final
#10ATP
1896ELO
1810Hard ELO
$3.1MYTD
$8.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 23 February 2026
hard
#19ATP
1918ELO
1861Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$18MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWLW
Cobolli F.
7-6 6-4
Tiafoe F.
Cobolli F.
7762
Tiafoe F.
6440

Flavio Cobolli defeated Frances Tiafoe 7-6 6-4 in the Acapulco final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Frances Tiafoe came in leading the head-to-head 4–0, defending last year's round of 16. Flavio Cobolli claimed a first win over Frances Tiafoe in five meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

04
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-06-15HalleR32grassFrances Tiafoe2-6 6.4-7.7
2026-03-04Indian Wells MastersR32hardFrances Tiafoe6-1 6-2
2025-07-21WashingtonR16hardFrances Tiafoe6-1 6-4
2024-02-12Delray BeachQFhardFrances Tiafoe6-4 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Cobolli F.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Tiafoe F.

Tiafoe F.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Cobolli F.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Cobolli F.Tiafoe F.
20
Serve
38
35
Return
37

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
54%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
54%
Service points won·Even
64%
66%
Return points won·Even
36%
36%
Break points saved·Even
64%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.9
6.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
76
83
Break points saved·Even
96
99
Break points won·Clear edge
35
57
Deciding sets·Slight edge
98
92
Tiebreaks·Even
95
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.5Hard Elo 1810
Surface ELO
5.5+52 Hard Elo edge
5.0Overall Elo 1896
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1918
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.0
Surface form
5.9
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.4
Minutes 14d
4.7
7.0
3-set count
0.0
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
44
63

Cobolli F.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 153 games (7d) · Tiafoe F.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 93 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
31°CClear
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 47%