Jasmine Paolini vs Coco Gauff — Cincinnati Quarter-final

Cincinnati · WTA · Quarter-final
Jasmine Paolini
ITA7
Jasmine Paolini
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 7 August 2025
hard
Coco Gauff
USA2
Coco Gauff
#7WTA
2071ELO
2035Hard ELO
$2.9MYTD
$33MCAREER
22 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLLWW
Paolini J.
2-6 6-4 6-3
Gauff C.
Paolini J.
2662
Gauff C.
6431

Jasmine Paolini defeated Coco Gauff 2-6 6-4 6-3 in the Cincinnati quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Coco Gauff came in ranked #7, leading the head-to-head 4–2, defending last year's round of 32. Jasmine Paolini narrowed the head-to-head to 4–3.

Key context

Head to head

2–4
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardCoco Gauff6-3 6-2
2025-10-06WuhanSFhardCoco Gauff6-4 6-3
2025-05-06RomeFclayJasmine Paolini6-4 6-2
2025-04-14StuttgartQFclayJasmine Paolini6-4 6-3
2023-08-14CincinnatiQFhardCoco Gauff6-3 6-2
2021-02-22AdelaideR32hardCoco Gauff6-4 6-7(4) 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Gauff C.

Gauff C.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Serve advantage — Gauff C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paolini J.Gauff C.
31
Serve
25
55
Return
100

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Paolini J.Gauff C.
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
42%
Service points won·Even
57%
58%
Return points won·Even
44%
48%
Break points saved·Even
56%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.5
2.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
6.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (73 vs 76). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Paolini J.Gauff C.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
99
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
96
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
100
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paolini J.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Gauff C.
7.7
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1873
Surface ELO
6.9+162 Hard Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 2071
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.0
Surface form
6.1
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.5
Minutes 14d
6.1
7.0
3-set count
4.0
7.0
Prev. match
6.0
5.5
Country comfort
7.9
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Paolini J.Gauff C.
Freshness·Clear edge
76
60

Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Gauff C.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 85 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw

Final
Swiatek I.[3]
Paolini J.[7]
7-56-4
Semi-finals
Swiatek I.[3]
Rybakina E.[9]
7-56-3
Paolini J.[7]
Kudermetova V.
6-36-726-3
Quarter-finals
Paolini J.[7]
Gauff C.[2]
2-66-46-3
Kudermetova V.
Gracheva V.
6-16-2
Rybakina E.[9]
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-16-4
Swiatek I.[3]
Kalinskaya A.[28]
6-36-4
R16
Kalinskaya A.[28]
Alexandrova E.[12]
3-67-656-1
Swiatek I.[3]
Cirstea S.
6-46-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-17-5
Paolini J.[7]
Krejcikova B.
6-16-2
Rybakina E.[9]
Keys M.[6]
6-736-46-2
Gracheva V.
Seidel E.
2-66-16-1
Kudermetova V.
Linette M.[31]
6-46-3
Gauff C.[2]
Bronzetti L.
6-26-4
R32
Gauff C.[2]
Yastremska D.[32]
W/O
Swiatek I.[3]
Kostyuk M.[25]
W/O
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Townsend T.
6-46-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Raducanu E.[30]
7-634-67-65
Keys M.[6]
Ito A.
6-46-0
Cirstea S.
Yuan Y.
6-726-46-4
Alexandrova E.[12]
Joint M.
6-46-3
Seidel E.
Kessler M.[29]
6-42-67-66
Kudermetova V.
Tauson C.[16]
3-67-646-4
Linette M.[31]
Pegula J.[4]
7-653-66-3
Kalinskaya A.[28]
Anisimova A.[5]
7-56-4
Gracheva V.
Muchova K.[11]
6-26-4
Rybakina E.[9]
Mertens E.[19]
4-66-37-5
Paolini J.[7]
Krueger A.[26]
7-626-1
Krejcikova B.
Jovic I.
6-43-66-2
Bronzetti L.
Ostapenko J.[23]
1-66-36-4
R64
Alexandrova E.[12]
Sun L.
6-46-2
Joint M.
Haddad Maia B.[18]
6-44-66-4
Mertens E.[19]
Ngounoue C.
3-67-637-5
Paolini J.[7]
Sakkari M.
7-627-65
Ostapenko J.[23]
Osorio C.
W/O
Muchova K.[11]
Garcia C.
7-637-60
Anisimova A.[5]
Jeanjean L.
W/O
Gracheva V.
Kenin S.[24]
6-776-36-3
Kessler M.[29]
Mcnally C.
6-46-3
Seidel E.
Navarro E.[8]
6-41-66-4
Kalinskaya A.[28]
Stearns P.
7-644-66-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Vondrousova M.
7-56-1
Yastremska D.[32]
Tomova V.
6-42-66-2
Tauson C.[16]
Tomljanovic A.
6-36-756-4
Linette M.[31]
Sramkova R.
7-646-0
Kostyuk M.[25]
Maria T.
6-06-1
Gauff C.[2]
Wang X.
6-36-2
Kudermetova V.
Bencic B.[17]
6-47-60
Pegula J.[4]
Birrell K.
6-46-3
Townsend T.
Samsonova L.[13]
6-26-4
Jovic I.
Noskova L.[20]
6-36-0
Krueger A.[26]
Sevastova A.
6-40-66-3
Bronzetti L.
Kasatkina D.[15]
6-31-66-4
Raducanu E.[30]
Danilovic O.
6-36-2
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Fernandez L.[21]
6-36-3
Rybakina E.[9]
Zarazua R.
4-66-07-5
Ito A.
Pavlyuchenkova A.[27]
6-14-66-4
Keys M.[6]
Lys E.
1-66-37-61
Swiatek I.[3]
Potapova A.
6-16-4
Cirstea S.
Frech M.[22]
7-642-66-4
Yuan Y.
Shnaider D.[14]
6-41-66-3
Krejcikova B.
Svitolina E.[10]
2-66-46-3
R128
Sramkova R.
Dolehide C.
1-66-47-61
Stearns P.
Wang Y.
6-46-3
Garcia C.
Kartal S.
5-76-46-3
Zarazua R.
Putintseva Y.
3-66-46-2
Maria T.
Osuigwe W.
6-26-3
Ngounoue C.
Baptiste H.
6-14-66-1
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Williams V.
6-46-4
Bronzetti L.
Zhu L.
6-766-27-66
Townsend T.
Collins D.
6-47-62
Lys E.
Pera B.
6-24-67-5
Gracheva V.
Volynets K.
6-43-66-3
Wang X.
Arango E.
7-616-3
Tomova V.
Li A.
6-47-5
Osorio C.
Uchijima M.
7-51-66-4
Krejcikova B.
Parks A.
6-44-66-0
Jovic I.
Sierra S.
6-37-64
Sevastova A.
Bektas E.
6-46-766-1
Sakkari M.
Rakhimova K.
6-33-66-2
Birrell K.
Blinkova A.
6-26-1
Kudermetova V.
Lamens S.
6-16-3
Tomljanovic A.
Bondar A.
7-606-4
Mcnally C.
Inglis M.
6-26-3
Seidel E.
Kudermetova P.
1-66-36-2
Jeanjean L.
Starodubtseva Y.
7-51-66-4
Joint M.
Minnen G.
6-26-3
Sun L.
Ruzic A.
6-46-4
Yuan Y.
Bucsa C.
6-26-2
Cirstea S.
Vekic D.
6-14-66-3
Potapova A.
Siegemund L.
6-46-4
Ito A.
Ruse E.
6-27-66
Danilovic O.
Boulter K.
6-07-5
Vondrousova M.
Cristian J.
6-36-1