Jasmine Paolini vs Coco GauffStuttgart Quarter-final

Stuttgart · WTA · Quarter-final
#17WTA
1905ELO
1856Clay ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 14 April 2025
clay
#7WTA
2071ELO
2018Clay ELO
$2.9MYTD
$33MCAREER
22 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLLWW
Paolini J.
6-4 6-3
Gauff C.
Paolini J.
662
Gauff C.
430

Jasmine Paolini defeated Coco Gauff 6-4 6-3 in the Stuttgart quarter-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Coco Gauff came in ranked #7, leading the head-to-head 4–2, defending last year's quarter-final, but Jasmine Paolini had arrived on a 3-match winning run. Jasmine Paolini narrowed the head-to-head to 4–3.

Key context

Head to head

24
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardCoco Gauff6-3 6-2
2025-10-06WuhanSFhardCoco Gauff6-4 6-3
2025-08-07CincinnatiQFhardJasmine Paolini2-6 6-4 6-3
2025-05-06RomeFclayJasmine Paolini6-4 6-2
2023-08-14CincinnatiQFhardCoco Gauff6-3 6-2
2021-02-22AdelaideR32hardCoco Gauff6-4 6-7(4) 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Gauff C.

Gauff C.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
42%
Service points won·Even
57%
58%
Return points won·Even
44%
48%
Break points saved·Even
55%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.5
2.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.6
7.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (73 vs 76). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
99
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
96
Break points won·Even
99
100
Deciding sets·Even
97
100
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 27 days (−0.3)
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 27 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
3.2Clay Elo 1856
Surface ELO
6.8+162 Clay Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 2071
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.6
Surface form
7.8
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
Prev. match
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
7.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
76
60

Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Gauff C.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 85 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
15°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 70%