Reilly Opelka vs Daniil Medvedevs Hertogenbosch Quarter-final

s Hertogenbosch · ATP · Quarter-final
#115ATP
1749ELO
1635Grass ELO
$325kYTD
$6.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 211 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 9 June 2025
grass
#9ATP
1977ELO
1855Grass ELO
$2.5MYTD
$52MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
Opelka R.
7-6 7-6
Medvedev D.
Opelka R.
77772
Medvedev D.
65650

Reilly Opelka defeated Daniil Medvedev 7-6 7-6 in the s Hertogenbosch quarter-final on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Daniil Medvedev came in ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 5–1. Reilly Opelka narrowed the head-to-head to 5–2.

Key context

Head to head

15
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-21WashingtonR32hardDaniil Medvedev3-6 7-5 6-1
2021-08-09Canada MastersFhardDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-3
2021-05-31Roland GarrosR32clayDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-2 6-4
2020-10-12St PetersburgR16hardReilly Opelka2-6 7-5 6-4
2019-03-18Miami MastersR32hardDaniil Medvedev7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-6(0)
2017-07-31WashingtonR64hardDaniil Medvedev6-7(8) 6-3 7-6(6)

Serve vs return

This season
Opelka R.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Medvedev D.

Medvedev D.serving98% hold

wins 79% of points on serve vs Opelka R.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
79%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
49%
Service points won·Even
69%
66%
Return points won·Clear edge
28%
41%
Break points saved·Clear edge
73%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
16.8
8.0
Double faults / match·Even
4.1
4.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (67 vs 90). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
63
96
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Dominant
1
99
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
2.1Grass Elo 1635
Surface ELO
7.9+221 Grass Elo edge
2.1Overall Elo 1749
ELO gap
7.9Overall Elo 1977
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.9
Surface form
8.4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
4.0
3-set count
7.0
3.0
Surface transition
3.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
85

Medvedev D.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast