Reilly Opelka vs Daniil MedvedevSt Petersburg Round of 16

St Petersburg · ATP · Round of 16
#115ATP
1749ELO
1734Hard ELO
$325kYTD
$6.0MCAREER
28 yrs · 211 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 12 October 2020
hard
#9ATP
1977ELO
1962Hard ELO
$2.5MYTD
$52MCAREER
30 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLWWL
Opelka R.
2-6 7-5 6-4
Medvedev D.
Opelka R.
2762
Medvedev D.
6541

Reilly Opelka defeated Daniil Medvedev 2-6 7-5 6-4 in the St Petersburg round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Daniil Medvedev came in ranked #9, leading the head-to-head 5–1. Reilly Opelka narrowed the head-to-head to 5–2.

Key context

Head to head

15
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-21WashingtonR32hardDaniil Medvedev3-6 7-5 6-1
2025-06-09s HertogenboschQFgrassReilly Opelka7-6(5) 7-6(5)
2021-08-09Canada MastersFhardDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-3
2021-05-31Roland GarrosR32clayDaniil Medvedev6-4 6-2 6-4
2019-03-18Miami MastersR32hardDaniil Medvedev7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-6(0)
2017-07-31WashingtonR64hardDaniil Medvedev6-7(8) 6-3 7-6(6)

Serve vs return

This season
Opelka R.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Medvedev D.

Medvedev D.serving95% hold

wins 75% of points on serve vs Opelka R.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Opelka R.Medvedev D.
86
Serve
47
0
Return
94

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
79%
75%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
54%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
70%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
29%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
70%
62%
Aces / match·Dominant
17.2
7.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.1
4.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (190 vs 198). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
63
96
Break points saved·Even
100
100
Break points won·Dominant
1
99
Deciding sets·Slight edge
88
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
82

Medvedev D.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast