Tommy Paul vs Alex De Minaur — Rome Masters Round of 16

Rome Masters · ATP · Round of 16
Tommy Paul
USA11
Tommy Paul
#25ATP
1949ELO
1886Clay ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 7 May 2025
clay
Alex De Minaur
AUS7
Alex De Minaur
#6ATP
1961ELO
1869Clay ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Paul T.
7-5 6-3
De Minaur A.
Paul T.
762
De Minaur A.
530

Tommy Paul defeated Alex De Minaur 7-5 6-3 in the Rome Masters round of 16 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 5–1, defending last year's round of 16. Tommy Paul narrowed the head-to-head to 5–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Tommy Paul closed it out in two sets, 7–5 6–3.

Head to head

1–5
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-22HamburgSFclayTommy Paul6-2 3-6 3-6
2023-07-31Los CabosQFhardAlex De Minaur6-4 3-6 6-3
2023-02-27AcapulcoFhardAlex De Minaur3-6 6-4 6-1
2022-06-20EastbourneQFgrassAlex De Minaur6-2 4-6 6-4
2022-05-09Rome MastersR32clayAlex De Minaur7-5 6-4
2022-03-07Indian Wells MastersR32hardAlex De Minaur7-6(2) 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Paul T.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Paul T.De Minaur A.
34
Serve
—
—
Return
39

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Paul T.De Minaur A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
57%
Service points won·Even
66%
66%
Return points won·Even
39%
40%
Break points saved·Even
63%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.5
4.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (66 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Paul T.De Minaur A.
Clutch Rating·Even
93
95
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Slight edge
87
97
Deciding sets·Even
98
97
Tiebreaks·Even
96
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paul T.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
De Minaur A.
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9+16 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.1Clay Elo 1869
4.3Overall Elo 1949
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1961
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.7
Surface form
6.5
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
Minutes 14d
7.5
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
8.5
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Paul T.De Minaur A.
Freshness·Slight edge
86
77

Paul T.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · De Minaur A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
17°CDrizzle
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 75%
Final
Alcaraz C.[3]
Sinner J.[1]
7-656-1
Semi-finals
Sinner J.[1]
Paul T.[11]
1-66-06-3
Alcaraz C.[3]
Musetti L.[8]
6-37-64
Quarter-finals
Alcaraz C.[3]
Draper J.[5]
6-46-4
Paul T.[11]
Hurkacz H.[30]
7-646-3
Musetti L.[8]
Zverev A.[2]
7-616-4
Sinner J.[1]
Ruud C.[6]
6-06-1
R16
Musetti L.[8]
Medvedev D.[10]
7-56-4
Paul T.[11]
De Minaur A.[7]
7-56-3
Alcaraz C.[3]
Khachanov K.[23]
6-33-67-5
Zverev A.[2]
Fils A.[13]
7-636-1
Sinner J.[1]
Cerundolo F.[17]
7-626-3
Ruud C.[6]
Munar J.
6-36-4
Hurkacz H.[30]
Mensik J.[20]
7-654-67-65
Draper J.[5]
Moutet C.
1-66-46-3
R32
Ruud C.[6]
Berrettini M.[29]
7-52-0
Hurkacz H.[30]
Giron M.
6-31-66-1
Fils A.[13]
Tsitsipas S.[18]
2-66-46-2
Paul T.[11]
Machac T.[19]
6-36-756-4
Alcaraz C.[3]
Djere L.
7-626-2
Munar J.
Korda S.[22]
6-46-2
Medvedev D.[10]
Popyrin A.[24]
6-46-1
Draper J.[5]
Kopriva V.
6-46-3
De Minaur A.[7]
Dellien H.
6-46-4
Moutet C.
Rune H.[9]
7-55-77-64
Mensik J.[20]
Marozsan F.
6-47-62
Sinner J.[1]
De Jong J.
6-46-2
Khachanov K.[23]
Passaro F.
6-36-0
Cerundolo F.[17]
Ofner S.
6-26-4
Musetti L.[8]
Nakashima B.[28]
6-46-3
Zverev A.[2]
Gaubas V.
6-46-0
R64
De Minaur A.[7]
Nardi L.
6-47-5
Moutet C.
Humbert U.[21]
6-34-0
Giron M.
Fritz T.[4]
7-647-63
Popyrin A.[24]
Taberner C.
6-17-64
Passaro F.
Dimitrov G.[14]
7-56-3
Nakashima B.[28]
Thompson J.
W/O
Sinner J.[1]
Navone M.
6-36-4
Marozsan F.
Rublev A.[16]
7-54-66-3
Khachanov K.[23]
Burruchaga R.
6-45-76-1
Munar J.
Shelton B.[12]
6-26-1
Djere L.
Michelsen A.[31]
6-06-3
Draper J.[5]
Darderi L.
6-16-4
Tsitsipas S.[18]
Muller A.
6-27-63
Ruud C.[6]
Bublik A.
6-44-66-3
Dellien H.
Seyboth Wild T.
4-66-36-4
De Jong J.
Davidovich Fokina A.[25]
6-06-2
Korda S.[22]
Vukic A.
6-36-4
Mensik J.[20]
Gigante M.
7-647-5
Kopriva V.
Baez S.[32]
3-66-46-4
Medvedev D.[10]
Norrie C.
6-46-2
Paul T.[11]
Bautista Agut R.
6-16-4
Machac T.[19]
Tien L.
6-46-4
Musetti L.[8]
Virtanen O.
6-36-2
Rune H.[9]
Comesana F.
3-66-36-4
Zverev A.[2]
Ugo Carabelli C.
6-26-1
Alcaraz C.[3]
Lajovic D.
6-36-3
Gaubas V.
Shapovalov D.[27]
6-36-4
Berrettini M.[29]
Fearnley J.
6-47-60
Hurkacz H.[30]
Martinez P.
6-17-5
Fils A.[13]
Griekspoor T.
6-26-2
Ofner S.
Tiafoe F.[15]
6-26-726-3
Cerundolo F.[17]
Jarry N.
7-646-3
R128
Ofner S.
Carballes Baena R.
6-30-0
Gigante M.
Rinderknech A.
7-647-64
Virtanen O.
Medjedovic H.
6-46-4
Passaro F.
Tseng C.
6-02-66-3
Giron M.
Diallo G.
3-66-36-4
De Jong J.
Shevchenko A.
6-26-4
Norrie C.
Oconnell C.
6-36-2
Griekspoor T.
Kecmanovic M.
4-66-36-0
Navone M.
Cina F.
6-36-3
Darderi L.
Yunchaokete B.
7-646-3
Vukic A.
Moreno De Alboran N.
7-626-2
Muller A.
Lehecka J.
2-66-37-65
Seyboth Wild T.
Borges N.
6-14-66-4
Ugo Carabelli C.
Carreno Busta P.
6-21-66-3
Jarry N.
Gaston H.
7-646-4
Comesana F.
Altmaier D.
6-17-5
Lajovic D.
Nishioka Y.
7-56-1
Munar J.
Barrios Vera T.
4-66-27-5
Djere L.
Etcheverry T.
6-36-2
Tien L.
Opelka R.
6-47-611
Kopriva V.
Halys Q.
6-46-3
Gaubas V.
Dzumhur D.
7-632-66-4
Taberner C.
Kovacevic A.
6-31-67-5
Nardi L.
Cobolli F.
6-36-4
Fearnley J.
Fognini F.
6-26-3
Moutet C.
Hijikata R.
3-66-17-5
Martinez P.
Bellucci M.
6-46-2
Bautista Agut R.
Arnaldi M.
6-46-3
Burruchaga R.
Sonego L.
6-26-3
Bublik A.
Safiullin R.
6-37-64
Thompson J.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
3-66-37-65
Marozsan F.
Fonseca J.
6-37-64