Alex De Minaur vs Tommy PaulAcapulco Final

Acapulco · ATP · Final
#6ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 27 February 2023
hard
#25ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
De Minaur A.
3-6 6-4 6-1
Paul T.
De Minaur A.
3662
Paul T.
6411

Alex De Minaur defeated Tommy Paul 3-6 6-4 6-1 in the Acapulco final on hard. The result followed the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 4–2. Alex De Minaur extended the head-to-head to 5–2.

Key context

Head to head

42
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-22HamburgSFclayTommy Paul6-2 3-6 3-6
2025-05-07Rome MastersR16clayTommy Paul7-5 6-3
2023-07-31Los CabosQFhardAlex De Minaur6-4 3-6 6-3
2022-06-20EastbourneQFgrassAlex De Minaur6-2 4-6 6-4
2022-05-09Rome MastersR32clayAlex De Minaur7-5 6-4
2022-03-07Indian Wells MastersR32hardAlex De Minaur7-6(2) 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
De Minaur A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

De Minaur A.Paul T.
48
Serve
71
80
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
54%
Service points won·Even
65%
65%
Return points won·Even
41%
39%
Break points saved·Even
61%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.2
6.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
95
93
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Slight edge
97
87
Deciding sets·Even
97
98
Tiebreaks·Even
99
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+54 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1881
5.7Overall Elo 1961
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1949
10.0
H2H
0.0
5.9
Surface form
7.6
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.7
Minutes 14d
8.4
4.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
73
84

De Minaur A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 72 games (7d) · Paul T.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 57%