Brandon Nakashima vs Mackenzie McdonaldHouston Round of 16

Houston · ATP · Round of 16
#31ATP
1839ELO
1735Clay ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 31 March 2025
clay
#145ATP
1606ELO
1473Clay ELO
$240kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
Nakashima B.
6-1 7-5
Mcdonald M.
Nakashima B.
672
Mcdonald M.
150

Brandon Nakashima defeated Mackenzie Mcdonald 6-1 7-5 in the Houston round of 16 on clay. The result followed the form book — Brandon Nakashima came in ranked #31, defending last year's quarter-final. Brandon Nakashima claimed a first win over Mackenzie Mcdonald in five meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Brandon Nakashima came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 6–1 7–5.

Head to head

04
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-07-22AtlantaR32hardMackenzie Mcdonald6-2 6-4
2023-02-27AcapulcoR16hardMackenzie Mcdonald6-2 6-0
2023-01-16Australian OpenR128hardMackenzie Mcdonald7-6(5) 7-6(1) 1-6 6-7(10) 6-4
2021-08-16Cincinnati MastersR64hardMackenzie Mcdonald7-5 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Nakashima B.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Mcdonald M.

Mcdonald M.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
68%
64%
Return points won·Even
35%
38%
Break points saved·Even
62%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.0
5.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.0
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (82 vs 91). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
56
56
Break points saved·Even
99
96
Break points won·Dominant
13
66
Deciding sets·Clear edge
64
45
Tiebreaks·Dominant
89
44

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
3.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
7.6+262 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.4Clay Elo 1473
7.1Overall Elo 1839
ELO gap
2.9Overall Elo 1606
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.9
Surface form
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.4
Minutes 14d
7.2
4.0
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
6.0
Surface transition
6.0
Context
7.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
84
87

Nakashima B.: 9 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Mcdonald M.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast