Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Brandon NakashimaAtlanta Round of 32

Atlanta · ATP · Round of 32
#140ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$240kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 22 July 2024
hard
#32ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Mcdonald M.
6-2 6-4
Nakashima B.
Mcdonald M.
662
Nakashima B.
240

Mackenzie Mcdonald defeated Brandon Nakashima 6-2 6-4 in the Atlanta round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Brandon Nakashima came in ranked #32, defending last year's round of 16. Mackenzie Mcdonald extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-31HoustonR16clayBrandon Nakashima6-1 7-5
2023-02-27AcapulcoR16hardMackenzie Mcdonald6-2 6-0
2023-01-16Australian OpenR128hardMackenzie Mcdonald7-6(5) 7-6(1) 1-6 6-7(10) 6-4
2021-08-16Cincinnati MastersR64hardMackenzie Mcdonald7-5 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Mcdonald M.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Mcdonald M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mcdonald M.Nakashima B.
25
Serve
61
10
Return
23

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
55%
Service points won·Even
64%
68%
Return points won·Even
38%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.8
8.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (141 vs 176). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
56
56
Break points saved·Even
96
99
Break points won·Dominant
66
13
Deciding sets·Clear edge
45
64
Tiebreaks·Dominant
44
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1604
Surface ELO
6.9+184 Hard Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1606
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 1839
10.0
H2H
0.0
2.6
Surface form
6.6
Fatigue & Travel
6.8
Minutes 14d
8.3
4.0
3-set count
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
7.0
Surface transition
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
91
88

Mcdonald M.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast