Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Brandon Nakashima — Australian Open Round of 128

Australian Open · ATP · Round of 128
Mackenzie Mcdonald
USA
Mackenzie Mcdonald
#140ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$240kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
3 — 2
Sets
Monday, 16 January 2023
hard
Brandon Nakashima
USA
Brandon Nakashima
#32ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Mcdonald M.
7-6 7-6 1-6 6-7 6-4
Nakashima B.
Mcdonald M.
7777161063
Nakashima B.
6561671242

Mackenzie Mcdonald defeated Brandon Nakashima 7-6 7-6 1-6 6-7 6-4 in the Australian Open round of 128 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Brandon Nakashima came in ranked #32, defending last year's round of 128. Mackenzie Mcdonald extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Mackenzie Mcdonald closed it out in five sets, 7–6 7–6 1–6 6–7 6–4.

Head to head

3–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-31HoustonR16clayBrandon Nakashima6-1 7-5
2024-07-22AtlantaR32hardMackenzie Mcdonald6-2 6-4
2023-02-27AcapulcoR16hardMackenzie Mcdonald6-2 6-0
2021-08-16Cincinnati MastersR64hardMackenzie Mcdonald7-5 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Mcdonald M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Mcdonald M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mcdonald M.Nakashima B.
25
Serve
61
10
Return
23

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Mcdonald M.Nakashima B.
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
68%
Return points won·Even
38%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.7
8.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Mcdonald M.Nakashima B.
Clutch Rating·Even
56
56
Break points saved·Even
96
99
Break points won·Dominant
66
13
Deciding sets·Clear edge
45
64
Tiebreaks·Dominant
44
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mcdonald M.
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Nakashima B.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1604
Surface ELO
6.9+184 Hard Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1606
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 1839
5.4
H2H
4.6
4.6
Surface form
6.9
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
5.8
Minutes 14d
9.1
7.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Mcdonald M.Nakashima B.
Freshness·Even
92
90

Mcdonald M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 56%
Final
Djokovic N.[4]
Tsitsipas S.[3]
6-37-647-65
Semi-finals
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Khachanov K.[18]
7-626-46-766-3
Djokovic N.[4]
Paul T.
7-56-16-2
Quarter-finals
Khachanov K.[18]
Korda S.[29]
7-656-33-0
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Lehecka J.
6-37-626-4
Djokovic N.[4]
Rublev A.[5]
6-16-26-4
Paul T.
Shelton B.
7-666-35-76-4
R16
Shelton B.
Wolf J.
6-756-26-747-646-2
Khachanov K.[18]
Nishioka Y.[31]
6-06-07-64
Korda S.[29]
Hurkacz H.[10]
3-66-36-21-67-67
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Sinner J.[15]
6-46-43-64-66-3
Lehecka J.
Auger Aliassime F.[6]
4-66-37-627-63
Djokovic N.[4]
De Minaur A.[22]
6-26-16-2
Paul T.
Bautista Agut R.[24]
6-24-66-27-5
Rublev A.[5]
Rune H.[9]
6-33-66-34-67-69
R32
Wolf J.
Mmoh M.
6-46-16-2
De Minaur A.[22]
Bonzi B.
7-606-26-1
Bautista Agut R.[24]
Murray A.
6-16-776-36-4
Djokovic N.[4]
Dimitrov G.[27]
7-676-36-4
Nishioka Y.[31]
Mcdonald M.
7-666-36-2
Khachanov K.[18]
Tiafoe F.[16]
6-36-43-67-69
Hurkacz H.[10]
Shapovalov D.[20]
7-636-41-64-66-3
Korda S.[29]
Medvedev D.[7]
7-676-37-64
Sinner J.[15]
Fucsovics M.
4-64-66-16-26-0
Lehecka J.
Norrie C.[11]
6-786-33-66-16-4
Auger Aliassime F.[6]
Cerundolo F.[28]
6-13-66-16-4
Rublev A.[5]
Evans D.[25]
6-46-26-3
Rune H.[9]
Humbert U.
6-46-27-65
Shelton B.
Popyrin A.
6-37-646-4
Paul T.
Brooksby J.
6-16-46-3
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Griekspoor T.
6-27-656-3
R64
Shapovalov D.[20]
Daniel T.
6-37-637-5
Korda S.[29]
Watanuki Y.
6-27-56-4
Rune H.[9]
Cressy M.
7-56-46-4
Bonzi B.
Carreno Busta P.[14]
4-64-67-656-17-64
De Minaur A.[22]
Mannarino A.
7-634-66-46-1
Mmoh M.
Zverev A.[12]
6-716-46-36-2
Paul T.
Davidovich Fokina A.[30]
6-22-66-746-36-4
Dimitrov G.[27]
Djere L.
6-36-26-0
Murray A.
Kokkinakis T.
4-66-747-656-37-5
Nishioka Y.[31]
Svrcina D.
6-36-46-2
Hurkacz H.[10]
Sonego L.
3-67-632-66-36-3
Mcdonald M.
Nadal R.[1]
6-46-47-5
Khachanov K.[18]
Kubler J.
6-45-76-46-2
Medvedev D.[7]
Millman J.
7-56-26-2
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Hijikata R.
6-36-06-2
Griekspoor T.
Van De Zandschulp B.[32]
6-46-46-4
Fucsovics M.
Harris L.
6-26-35-76-4
Sinner J.[15]
Etcheverry T.
6-36-26-2
Norrie C.[11]
Lestienne C.
6-33-67-626-3
Lehecka J.
Eubanks C.
6-46-43-66-3
Cerundolo F.[28]
Moutet C.
3-66-46-27-5
Rublev A.[5]
Ruusuvuori E.
6-26-46-726-3
Popyrin A.
Fritz T.[8]
6-747-626-46-766-2
Shelton B.
Jarry N.
7-637-637-5
Wolf J.
Schwartzman D.[23]
6-16-46-4
Brooksby J.
Ruud C.[2]
6-37-56-746-2
Auger Aliassime F.[6]
Molcan A.
3-63-66-36-26-2
Humbert U.
Kudla D.
6-26-756-26-4
Tiafoe F.[16]
Shang J.
6-46-46-1
Bautista Agut R.[24]
Holt B.
4-62-66-36-26-2
Djokovic N.[4]
Couacaud E.
6-16-756-26-0
Evans D.[25]
Chardy J.
6-46-46-1
R128
Kubler J.
Baez S.
6-46-46-4
Shang J.
Otte O.
6-26-46-727-5
Millman J.
Huesler M.
6-787-56-726-26-3
Norrie C.[11]
Van Assche L.
7-636-06-3
Lestienne C.
Monteiro T.
6-37-626-3
Ruusuvuori E.
Purcell M.
4-66-36-47-611
Chardy J.
Galan D.
1-67-56-16-4
Djere L.
Bergs Z.
6-41-66-46-1
Zverev A.[12]
Varillas J.
4-66-15-77-636-4
Murray A.
Berrettini M.[13]
6-36-34-66-777-66
Eubanks C.
Kwon S.
6-36-716-34-66-4
Carreno Busta P.[14]
Cachin P.
7-646-17-63
Svrcina D.
Munar J.
6-36-26-2
Wolf J.
Thompson J.
6-33-66-47-5
Paul T.
Struff J.
6-17-666-2
Holt B.
Vukic A.
6-41-66-33-66-3
Fucsovics M.
Coria F.
4-67-52-67-666-2
Sonego L.
Borges N.
7-646-36-766-1
Nadal R.[1]
Draper J.
7-52-66-46-1
Mcdonald M.
Nakashima B.
7-657-611-66-7106-4
Nishioka Y.[31]
Ymer M.
6-46-27-5
Khachanov K.[18]
Zapata Miralles B.
7-636-26-0
Tiafoe F.[16]
Altmaier D.
6-36-36-757-66
Hurkacz H.[10]
Martinez P.
7-616-26-2
Daniel T.
Escobedo E.
7-56-23-66-3
Shapovalov D.[20]
Lajovic D.
6-44-66-46-1
Korda S.[29]
Garin C.
6-41-66-36-2
Watanuki Y.
Rinderknech A.
6-36-36-2
Medvedev D.[7]
Giron M.
6-06-16-2
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Halys Q.
6-36-47-66
Hijikata R.
Hanfmann Y.
4-64-66-37-656-3
Griekspoor T.
Kotov P.
6-37-636-3
Van De Zandschulp B.[32]
Ivashka I.
6-33-67-56-3
Harris L.
Musetti L.[17]
6-46-16-702-67-64
Etcheverry T.
Barrere G.
3-66-36-46-4
Sinner J.[15]
Edmund K.
6-46-06-2
Lehecka J.
Coric B.[21]
6-36-36-3
Cerundolo F.[28]
Pella G.
6-46-46-3
Moutet C.
Wu Y.
6-45-76-24-67-5
Molcan A.
Wawrinka S.
6-736-31-67-626-4
Auger Aliassime F.[6]
Pospisil V.
1-67-647-636-3
Rublev A.[5]
Thiem D.
6-36-46-2
Evans D.[25]
Bagnis F.
6-44-66-46-4
Kudla D.
Safiullin R.
3-67-57-666-3
Humbert U.
Gasquet R.
6-36-46-3
Cressy M.
Ramos A.
7-627-53-66-3
Rune H.[9]
Krajinovic F.
6-26-36-4
Bonzi B.
Bellucci M.
4-66-37-656-4
De Minaur A.[22]
Hsu Y.
6-26-26-3
Dimitrov G.[27]
Karatsev A.
7-637-56-2
Couacaud E.
Dellien H.
6-47-56-0
Djokovic N.[4]
Carballes Baena R.
6-36-46-0
Popyrin A.
Tseng C.
4-67-656-757-646-1
Shelton B.
Zhang Z.
4-66-36-22-67-64
Jarry N.
Kecmanovic M.[26]
6-36-47-63
Schwartzman D.[23]
Krutykh O.
6-46-766-37-65
Kokkinakis T.
Fognini F.
6-16-26-2
Davidovich Fokina A.[30]
Bublik A.
6-06-733-66-46-3
Brooksby J.
Oconnell C.
3-66-26-36-2
Ruud C.[2]
Machac T.
6-37-666-756-3
Fritz T.[8]
Basilashvili N.
6-46-24-67-5
Mmoh M.
Lokoli L.
4-62-67-676-46-2
Mannarino A.
Isner J.
6-757-686-26-2
Bautista Agut R.[24]
Sousa J.
6-36-26-2