Mackenzie Mcdonald vs Brandon NakashimaAcapulco Round of 16

Acapulco · ATP · Round of 16
#140ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$240kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWLLW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 27 February 2023
hard
#32ATP
1839ELO
1788Hard ELO
$990kYTD
$7.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWLWWL
Mcdonald M.
6-2 6-0
Nakashima B.
Mcdonald M.
662
Nakashima B.
200

Mackenzie Mcdonald defeated Brandon Nakashima 6-2 6-0 in the Acapulco round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Brandon Nakashima came in ranked #32, defending last year's round of 32. Mackenzie Mcdonald extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-31HoustonR16clayBrandon Nakashima6-1 7-5
2024-07-22AtlantaR32hardMackenzie Mcdonald6-2 6-4
2023-01-16Australian OpenR128hardMackenzie Mcdonald7-6(5) 7-6(1) 1-6 6-7(10) 6-4
2021-08-16Cincinnati MastersR64hardMackenzie Mcdonald7-5 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Mcdonald M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Nakashima B.

Nakashima B.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Mcdonald M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mcdonald M.Nakashima B.
25
Serve
61
10
Return
23

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
68%
Return points won·Even
38%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.8
8.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
56
56
Break points saved·Even
96
99
Break points won·Dominant
66
13
Deciding sets·Clear edge
45
64
Tiebreaks·Dominant
44
89

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 42 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1604
Surface ELO
6.9+184 Hard Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1606
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 1839
7.2
H2H
2.8
6.9
Surface form
5.7
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
5.8
Minutes 14d
4.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
91
88

Mcdonald M.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Nakashima B.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 57%