Jelena Ostapenko vs Iga SwiatekDoha Semi-final

Doha · WTA · Semi-final
#31WTA
1855ELO
1794Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 9 February 2025
hard
#3WTA
2064ELO
2022Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$46MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWLW
Ostapenko J.
6-3 6-1
Swiatek I.
Ostapenko J.
662
Swiatek I.
310

Jelena Ostapenko defeated Iga Swiatek 6-3 6-1 in the Doha semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Iga Swiatek came in ranked #3, defending the title. Jelena Ostapenko extended the head-to-head to 6–0.

Key context

Head to head

50
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-14StuttgartQFclayJelena Ostapenko6-3 3-6 6-2
2023-08-28US OpenR16hardJelena Ostapenko3-6 6-3 6-1
2022-02-14DubaiR16hardJelena Ostapenko4-6 6-1 7-6(4)
2021-10-06Indian WellsR16hardJelena Ostapenko6-4 6-3
2019-06-17BirminghamR32grassJelena Ostapenko6-0 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Ostapenko J.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Swiatek I.

Swiatek I.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Ostapenko J.

Serve advantage — Swiatek I.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Ostapenko J.Swiatek I.
10
Serve
67
45
Return
98

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
65%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
55%
62%
Return points won·Even
45%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
50%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.8
3.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.8
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (56 vs 85). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
88
100
Break points saved·Clear edge
79
98
Break points won·Even
100
100
Deciding sets·Even
96
99
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
87
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 27 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
2.0Hard Elo 1794
Surface ELO
8.0+227 Hard Elo edge
2.0Overall Elo 1855
ELO gap
8.0Overall Elo 2064
10.0
H2H
0.0
1.8
Surface form
8.4
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.9
Minutes 14d
8.0
Prev. match
6.0
5.9
Country comfort
Context
6.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
92
91

Ostapenko J.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Swiatek I.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
21°CPartly cloudy
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 34%

Draw

Semi-finals
Ostapenko J.
Swiatek I.[2]
6-36-1
Anisimova A.
Alexandrova E.
6-36-3