Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexei PopyrinBrisbane Round of 32

Brisbane · ATP · Round of 32
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 30 December 2024
hard
#103ATP
1741ELO
1681Hard ELO
$563kYTD
$9.7MCAREER
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWLWL
Arnaldi M.
6-3 6-2
Popyrin A.
Arnaldi M.
662
Popyrin A.
320

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Alexei Popyrin 6-3 6-2 in the Brisbane round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #35, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Matteo Arnaldi extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-11-26Davis Cup Finals F: AUS vs ITARRhardMatteo Arnaldi7-5 2-6 6-4
2023-10-02Shanghai MastersR128hardMatteo Arnaldi4-6 6-3 6-4
2023-07-24UmagSFclayAlexei Popyrin6-7(2) 7-5 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaldi M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Popyrin A.

Popyrin A.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Arnaldi M.Popyrin A.
23
Serve
40
22
Return
11

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
9.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.4
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (117 vs 106). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
59
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Dominant
51
6
Deciding sets·Slight edge
86
75
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 63 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
5.1+52 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Hard Elo 1681
5.1Overall Elo 1830
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1741
10.0
H2H
0.0
3.4
Surface form
5.2
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Country comfort
6.8
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
95
97

Arnaldi M.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Popyrin A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
27°CDrizzle
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 64%