Alexei Popyrin vs Matteo ArnaldiUmag Semi-final

Umag · ATP · Semi-final
#103ATP
1741ELO
1727Clay ELO
$563kYTD
$9.7MCAREER
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 24 July 2023
clay
#34ATP
1830ELO
1830Clay ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
Popyrin A.
6-7 7-5 6-3
Arnaldi M.
Popyrin A.
62762
Arnaldi M.
77531

Alexei Popyrin defeated Matteo Arnaldi 6-7 7-5 6-3 in the Umag semi-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #34, leading the head-to-head 3–0. Alexei Popyrin claimed a first win over Matteo Arnaldi in four meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

03
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-12-30BrisbaneR32hardMatteo Arnaldi6-3 6-2
2023-11-26Davis Cup Finals F: AUS vs ITARRhardMatteo Arnaldi7-5 2-6 6-4
2023-10-02Shanghai MastersR128hardMatteo Arnaldi4-6 6-3 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Popyrin A.serving84% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Arnaldi M.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Popyrin A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
51%
Service points won·Even
66%
62%
Return points won·Even
34%
37%
Break points saved·Even
66%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.8
5.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.9
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (171 vs 194). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
59
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Dominant
6
51
Deciding sets·Slight edge
75
86
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Clay Elo 1727
Surface ELO
5.2+104 Clay Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1741
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1830
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.8
Surface form
7.1
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
7.1
3-set count
4.0
4.0
Prev. match
6.0
3.0
Surface transition
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
98
96

Popyrin A.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Arnaldi M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast