Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexei Popyrin — Shanghai Masters Round of 128

Shanghai Masters · ATP · Round of 128
Matteo Arnaldi
ITA
Matteo Arnaldi
#35ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 2 October 2023
hard
Alexei Popyrin
AUS
Alexei Popyrin
#103ATP
1741ELO
1681Hard ELO
$563kYTD
$9.7MCAREER
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWLWL
Arnaldi M.
4-6 6-3 6-4
Popyrin A.
Arnaldi M.
4662
Popyrin A.
6341

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Alexei Popyrin 4-6 6-3 6-4 in the Shanghai Masters round of 128 on hard. The result followed the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #35, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Matteo Arnaldi extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

Head to head

2–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-12-30BrisbaneR32hardMatteo Arnaldi6-3 6-2
2023-11-26Davis Cup Finals F: AUS vs ITARRhardMatteo Arnaldi7-5 2-6 6-4
2023-07-24UmagSFclayAlexei Popyrin6-7(2) 7-5 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaldi M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Popyrin A.

Popyrin A.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Arnaldi M.Popyrin A.
23
Serve
40
22
Return
11

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Arnaldi M.Popyrin A.
1st serve in·Even
58%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
34%
Break points saved·Even
63%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.8
9.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.3
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (194 vs 171). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Arnaldi M.Popyrin A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
59
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Dominant
51
6
Deciding sets·Slight edge
86
75
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Arnaldi M.
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Popyrin A.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.1+52 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Hard Elo 1681
5.1Overall Elo 1830
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1741
5.0
H2H
5.0
7.1
Surface form
6.0
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
2.7
Minutes 14d
8.3
0.0
3-set count
7.0
6.0
Prev. match
6.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Arnaldi M.Popyrin A.
Freshness·Even
94
97

Arnaldi M.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Popyrin A.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°CMainly clear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 51%
Final
Hurkacz H.[16]
Rublev A.[5]
6-33-67-68
Semi-finals
Rublev A.[5]
Dimitrov G.[18]
7-676-3
Hurkacz H.[16]
Korda S.[26]
6-36-4
Quarter-finals
Korda S.[26]
Shelton B.[19]
6-7106-27-66
Dimitrov G.[18]
Jarry N.[22]
7-626-4
Rublev A.[5]
Humbert U.[32]
6-26-3
Hurkacz H.[16]
Marozsan F.
4-66-16-3
R16
Humbert U.[32]
Wolf J.
6-16-2
Hurkacz H.[16]
Zhang Z.
7-664-67-64
Korda S.[26]
Cerundolo F.[20]
7-57-66
Shelton B.[19]
Sinner J.[6]
2-66-37-65
Dimitrov G.[18]
Alcaraz C.[1]
5-76-26-4
Jarry N.[22]
Schwartzman D.
6-35-76-3
Rublev A.[5]
Paul T.[12]
7-57-5
Marozsan F.
Ruud C.[8]
7-633-66-4
R32
Dimitrov G.[18]
Khachanov K.[13]
7-666-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
Evans D.[30]
7-616-4
Jarry N.[22]
Sonego L.
7-646-2
Schwartzman D.
Fritz T.[7]
6-43-67-65
Humbert U.[32]
Tsitsipas S.[4]
6-43-67-5
Wolf J.
Arnaldi M.
2-66-37-64
Paul T.[12]
Fils A.
6-46-776-4
Rublev A.[5]
Mannarino A.[31]
6-36-0
Ruud C.[8]
Eubanks C.[29]
6-46-2
Marozsan F.
Lajovic D.
6-36-3
Hurkacz H.[16]
Hsu Y.
6-46-4
Zhang Z.
Nakashima B.
7-626-2
Sinner J.[6]
Baez S.[25]
3-66-36-2
Shelton B.[19]
Safiullin R.
3-66-36-4
Cerundolo F.[20]
Fucsovics M.
3-66-47-5
Korda S.[26]
Medvedev D.[2]
7-686-2
R64
Evans D.[30]
Kukushkin M.
6-23-0
Khachanov K.[13]
Zhukayev B.
7-614-66-2
Mannarino A.[31]
Tseng C.
6-26-2
Lajovic D.
Griekspoor T.[23]
6-43-2
Zhang Z.
Etcheverry T.[28]
4-66-36-4
Nakashima B.
Rune H.[3]
6-06-2
Cerundolo F.[20]
Mcdonald M.
7-647-65
Korda S.[26]
Yunchaokete B.
6-16-4
Humbert U.[32]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-41-66-2
Dimitrov G.[18]
Vukic A.
6-46-3
Sonego L.
Tiafoe F.[10]
2-66-26-3
Jarry N.[22]
Atmane T.
7-56-2
Schwartzman D.
Lehecka J.[27]
6-43-66-2
Fritz T.[7]
Watanuki Y.
7-626-766-4
Tsitsipas S.[4]
Hijikata R.
6-46-2
Arnaldi M.
Struff J.[21]
6-33-66-4
Wolf J.
Norrie C.[15]
6-35-77-64
Paul T.[12]
Ofner S.
6-36-0
Rublev A.[5]
Halys Q.
6-47-5
Ruud C.[8]
Nishioka Y.
7-56-0
Eubanks C.[29]
Hanfmann Y.
4-66-36-2
Marozsan F.
De Minaur A.[11]
6-37-5
Hsu Y.
Musetti L.[17]
6-36-4
Sinner J.[6]
Giron M.
7-676-2
Baez S.[25]
Sweeny D.
6-26-4
Shelton B.[19]
Munar J.
6-46-4
Safiullin R.
Zverev A.[9]
6-36-1
Fucsovics M.
Auger Aliassime F.[14]
7-634-66-3
Medvedev D.[2]
Garin C.
6-36-3
Hurkacz H.[16]
Kokkinakis T.
7-656-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
Barrere G.
6-27-5
Fils A.
Davidovich Fokina A.[24]
6-27-5
R128
Ofner S.
Varillas J.
7-637-66
Yunchaokete B.
Kecmanovic M.
6-766-22-1
Fucsovics M.
Yevseyev D.
6-46-2
Hijikata R.
Djere L.
7-647-5
Atmane T.
Thompson J.
6-33-66-1
Barrere G.
Borges N.
6-26-2
Kukushkin M.
Muller A.
6-766-36-2
Vukic A.
Carballes Baena R.
6-47-67
Zhukayev B.
Napolitano S.
7-57-5
Schwartzman D.
Van Assche L.
5-76-36-2
Watanuki Y.
Shang J.
7-674-66-4
Arnaldi M.
Popyrin A.
4-66-36-4
Wolf J.
Cachin P.
3-66-36-4
Fils A.
Kotov P.
6-16-4
Halys Q.
Karatsev A.
7-643-66-2
Nishioka Y.
Altmaier D.
6-43-67-62
Hanfmann Y.
Duckworth J.
6-46-7106-3
Lajovic D.
Wawrinka S.
6-47-67
Marozsan F.
Rinderknech A.
7-666-2
Kokkinakis T.
Fognini F.
6-26-4
Hsu Y.
Purcell M.
7-654-66-4
Zhang Z.
Gasquet R.
6-16-2
Nakashima B.
Zapata Miralles B.
6-17-63
Sweeny D.
Daniel T.
6-26-3
Safiullin R.
Murray A.
6-36-2
Garin C.
Kovacevic A.
6-47-610
Sonego L.
Sekulic P.
6-36-2
Mcdonald M.
Moutet C.
6-26-3
Van De Zandschulp B.
Oconnell C.
6-26-726-4
Munar J.
Te R.
6-26-4
Tseng C.
Shevchenko A.
3-66-36-2
Giron M.
Galan D.
6-46-2