Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexei PopyrinDavis Cup Finals F: AUS vs ITA Round Robin

Davis Cup Finals F: AUS vs ITA · ATP · Round Robin
#34ATP
1830ELO
1732Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$5.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 26 November 2023
hard
#103ATP
1741ELO
1681Hard ELO
$563kYTD
$9.7MCAREER
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLWWLWL
Arnaldi M.
7-5 2-6 6-4
Popyrin A.
Arnaldi M.
7262
Popyrin A.
5641

Matteo Arnaldi defeated Alexei Popyrin 7-5 2-6 6-4 in the Davis Cup Finals F: AUS vs ITA round robin on hard. The result followed the form book — Matteo Arnaldi came in ranked #34, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Matteo Arnaldi extended the head-to-head to 3–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Matteo Arnaldi closed it out in three sets, 7–5 2–6 6–4.

Head to head

21
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-12-30BrisbaneR32hardMatteo Arnaldi6-3 6-2
2023-10-02Shanghai MastersR128hardMatteo Arnaldi4-6 6-3 6-4
2023-07-24UmagSFclayAlexei Popyrin6-7(2) 7-5 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Arnaldi M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Popyrin A.

Popyrin A.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Arnaldi M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Arnaldi M.Popyrin A.
23
Serve
41
22
Return
11

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
50%
Service points won·Even
62%
66%
Return points won·Even
37%
34%
Break points saved·Even
63%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.8
9.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.3
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (194 vs 171). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
59
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Dominant
51
6
Deciding sets·Slight edge
86
75
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.1+52 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Hard Elo 1681
5.1Overall Elo 1830
ELO gap
4.9Overall Elo 1741
10.0
H2H
0.0
5.4
Surface form
4.1
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
3-set count
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
97
98

Arnaldi M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Popyrin A.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About