Holger Rune vs Alex De MinaurParis Masters Quarter-final

Paris Masters · ATP · Quarter-final
#77ATP
1757ELO
1725Hard ELO
$0YTD
$16MCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 28 October 2024
hard
#6ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWW
Rune H.
6-4 4-6 7-5
De Minaur A.
Rune H.
6472
De Minaur A.
4651

Holger Rune defeated Alex De Minaur 6-4 4-6 7-5 in the Paris Masters quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Alex De Minaur came in ranked #6, defending last year's quarter-final, but Holger Rune had arrived on a 3-match winning run. Holger Rune extended the head-to-head to 3–2.

Key context

Head to head

22
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-06-19Queen's ClubSFgrassAlex De Minaur6-3 7-6(2)
2023-02-27AcapulcoSFhardAlex De Minaur3-6 7-5 6-2
2022-10-24BaselR32hardHolger Rune6-2 7-5
2022-10-17StockholmSFhardHolger Rune4-6 7-6(1) 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Rune H.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs De Minaur A.

De Minaur A.serving88% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Rune H.

Serve advantage — De Minaur A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rune H.De Minaur A.
47
Serve
48
58
Return
80

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
56%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
56%
Service points won·Even
66%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points saved·Even
64%
62%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.0
4.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.9
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (120 vs 166). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
91
95
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Clear edge
84
97
Deciding sets·Even
98
97
Tiebreaks·Even
99
99

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
2.5Hard Elo 1725
Surface ELO
7.5+211 Hard Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1757
ELO gap
7.5Overall Elo 1961
6.1
H2H
3.9
6.8
Surface form
6.6
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.7
Minutes 14d
2.9
3-set count
0.0
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
6.6
Country comfort
5.2
Context
7.0
Defending pts
7.0
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
73

De Minaur A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
14°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 92%