Daria Kasatkina vs Marta KostyukBerlin Round of 32

Berlin · WTA · Round of 32
#63WTA
1795ELO
1666Grass ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 17 June 2024
grass
#11WTA
2057ELO
1737Grass ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
Kasatkina D.
4-6 7-6 6-3
Kostyuk M.
Kasatkina D.
47862
Kostyuk M.
66631

Daria Kasatkina defeated Marta Kostyuk 4-6 7-6 6-3 in the Berlin round of 32 on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Marta Kostyuk came in ranked #11, leading the head-to-head 4–3. Daria Kasatkina narrowed the head-to-head to 4–4.

Key context

Head to head

34
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-27MontrealR32hardMarta Kostyuk3-6 6-3 7-6(4)
2025-05-06RomeR64clayMarta Kostyuk6-4 6-2
2024-01-01BrisbaneR32hardDaria Kasatkina6-3 6-4
2023-09-25TokyoR32hardDaria Kasatkina3-6 6-4 6-3
2021-06-14BirminghamR16grassDaria Kasatkina6-2 7-5
2021-04-19IstanbulR16clayMarta Kostyuk6-3 7-5
2020-08-31US OpenR128hardMarta Kostyuk6-1 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Kasatkina D.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Kostyuk M.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
42%
45%
Service points won·Even
54%
57%
Return points won·Even
48%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.7
3.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
5.3
5.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (120 vs 117). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
92
Break points saved·Clear edge
80
93
Break points won·Even
100
98
Deciding sets·Slight edge
93
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
47
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.8Grass Elo 1666
Surface ELO
5.2+71 Grass Elo edge
2.3Overall Elo 1795
ELO gap
7.7Overall Elo 2057
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.8
Surface form
4.9
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
9.3
Prev. match
9.0
3.0
Surface transition
Context
6.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
73

Kasatkina D.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Kostyuk M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
20°CDrizzle
Wind 16 km/hHumidity 63%