Daria Kasatkina vs Marta KostyukTokyo Round of 32

Tokyo · WTA · Round of 32
#65WTA
1795ELO
1757Hard ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 25 September 2023
hard
#13WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$2.3MYTD
$9.1MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLWWW
Kasatkina D.
3-6 6-4 6-3
Kostyuk M.
Kasatkina D.
3662
Kostyuk M.
6431

Daria Kasatkina defeated Marta Kostyuk 3-6 6-4 6-3 in the Tokyo round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Marta Kostyuk came in ranked #13, leading the head-to-head 4–3. Daria Kasatkina narrowed the head-to-head to 4–4.

Key context

Head to head

34
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-27MontrealR32hardMarta Kostyuk3-6 6-3 7-6(4)
2025-05-06RomeR64clayMarta Kostyuk6-4 6-2
2024-06-17BerlinR32grassDaria Kasatkina4-6 7-6(6) 6-3
2024-01-01BrisbaneR32hardDaria Kasatkina6-3 6-4
2021-06-14BirminghamR16grassDaria Kasatkina6-2 7-5
2021-04-19IstanbulR16clayMarta Kostyuk6-3 7-5
2020-08-31US OpenR128hardMarta Kostyuk6-1 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Kasatkina D.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Kostyuk M.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Kasatkina D.Kostyuk M.
0
Serve
53
95
Return
57

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
70%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
41%
45%
Service points won·Even
54%
57%
Return points won·Even
48%
46%
Break points saved·Even
54%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.5
3.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.7
6.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (184 vs 163). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
78
92
Break points saved·Clear edge
80
93
Break points won·Even
100
98
Deciding sets·Slight edge
93
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
47
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 42 days (−0.7)
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.6Hard Elo 1757
Surface ELO
7.4+210 Hard Elo edge
2.3Overall Elo 1795
ELO gap
7.7Overall Elo 2057
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.5
Surface form
4.8
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Minutes 14d
5.2
3-set count
4.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
89
65

Kasatkina D.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Kostyuk M.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 49%