Holger Rune vs Sebastian BaezBasel Round of 16

Basel · ATP · Round of 16
#77ATP
1757ELO
1725Hard ELO
$0YTD
$16MCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 23 October 2023
hard
#57ATP
1759ELO
1709Hard ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
Rune H.
7-6 6-1
Baez S.
Rune H.
7762
Baez S.
6210

Holger Rune defeated Sebastian Baez 7-6 6-1 in the Basel round of 16 on hard. The result followed the form book — Holger Rune came in leading the head-to-head 3–2, defending last year's final. Holger Rune extended the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Holger Rune came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–6 6–1.

Head to head

32
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-01Shanghai MastersR64hardHolger Rune7-5 6-4
2025-04-14BarcelonaR16clayHolger Rune4-6 6-1 6-2
2024-05-06Rome MastersR32claySebastian Baez2-6 6-2 6-3
2022-02-07Buenos AiresR32claySebastian Baez7-6(4) 6-3
2021-03-08SantiagoR32clayHolger Rune6-3 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Rune H.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baez S.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Rune H.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Rune H.Baez S.
47
Serve
5
58
Return
63

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
61%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Even
64%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.8
2.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.3
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (186 vs 197). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
91
87
Break points saved·Even
99
96
Break points won·Even
84
86
Deciding sets·Slight edge
98
88
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
99
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.6+16 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Hard Elo 1709
5.5Overall Elo 1757
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1759
5.0
H2H
5.0
2.5
Surface form
5.4
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Minutes 14d
9.0
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
95

Baez S.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast