Jack Draper vs Tommy PaulAdelaide 2 Round of 16

Adelaide 2 · ATP · Round of 16
#145ATP
1822ELO
1783Hard ELO
$305kYTD
$8.9MCAREER
24 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLLWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 9 January 2023
hard
#24ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
Draper J.
6-4 6-4
Paul T.
Draper J.
662
Paul T.
440

Jack Draper defeated Tommy Paul 6-4 6-4 in the Adelaide 2 round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Tommy Paul came in ranked #24, defending last year's quarter-final. Jack Draper extended the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

  • Match story: Jack Draper edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

32
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR16clayJack Draper6-2 6-2
2024-06-17Queen's ClubQFgrassTommy Paul6-3 5-7 6-4
2024-02-26AcapulcoR32hardJack Draper6-0 6-4
2024-01-15Australian OpenR64hardTommy Paul6-2 3-6 6-3 7-5
2024-01-08AdelaideQFhardJack Draper6-1 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Draper J.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Paul T.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Draper J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Draper J.Paul T.
Serve
71
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
61%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
54%
Service points won·Even
67%
65%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Even
64%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
8.1
6.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.7
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (156 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
93
Break points saved·Even
99
99
Break points won·Even
83
87
Deciding sets·Even
96
98
Tiebreaks·Even
95
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 70 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
5.0Hard Elo 1783
Surface ELO
5.0+99 Hard Elo edge
4.7Overall Elo 1822
ELO gap
5.3Overall Elo 1949
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.3
Surface form
6.1
0.0
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.4
Minutes 14d
8.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
7.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
100
88

Draper J.: 17 days rest · Paul T.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast