Daria Kasatkina vs Elise MertensSydney Round of 16

Sydney · WTA · Round of 16
#65WTA
1795ELO
1757Hard ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 10 January 2022
hard
#27WTA
1894ELO
1847Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$19MCAREER
30 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLWL
Kasatkina D.
6-3 6-4
Mertens E.
Kasatkina D.
662
Mertens E.
340

Daria Kasatkina defeated Elise Mertens 6-3 6-4 in the Sydney round of 16 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elise Mertens came in ranked #27. Daria Kasatkina extended the head-to-head to 6–2.

Key context

Head to head

52
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-08DohaR32hardDaria Kasatkina6-4 6-0
2023-08-07MontrealR64hardDaria Kasatkina6-4 6-2
2023-07-31WashingtonR32hardDaria Kasatkina6-3 7-5
2023-03-20MiamiR64hardElise Mertens4-6 6-2 6-2
2021-08-02San JoseSFhardDaria Kasatkina6-3 6-2
2019-04-22StuttgartR32clayDaria Kasatkina7-6(8) 7-5
2017-08-21New HavenR16hardElise Mertens6-2 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Kasatkina D.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Mertens E.

Mertens E.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Kasatkina D.Mertens E.
0
Serve
51
95
Return
54

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
70%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
41%
46%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
59%
Return points won·Even
48%
45%
Break points saved·Even
54%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.4
3.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.7
5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
78
80
Break points saved·Slight edge
80
90
Break points won·Even
100
96
Deciding sets·Clear edge
93
76
Tiebreaks·Dominant
47
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 69 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1757
Surface ELO
6.1+90 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1795
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1894
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.1
Surface form
3.9
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.6
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
89
74

Kasatkina D.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Mertens E.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast