Tommy Paul vs Andrey Rublev — Indian Wells Masters Round of 32

Indian Wells Masters · ATP · Round of 32
Tommy Paul
USA
Tommy Paul
#24ATP
1949ELO
1881Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
$15MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 4 October 2021
hard
Andrey Rublev
RUS4
Andrey Rublev
#16ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
Paul T.
6-4 3-6 7-5
Rublev A.
Paul T.
6372
Rublev A.
4651

Tommy Paul defeated Andrey Rublev 6-4 3-6 7-5 in the Indian Wells Masters round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Andrey Rublev came in ranked #16, leading the head-to-head 5–0. Tommy Paul claimed a first win over Andrey Rublev in six meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 5–1.

Key context

  • Match story: Tommy Paul closed it out in three sets, 6–4 3–6 7–5.

Head to head

0–5
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2023-10-02Shanghai MastersR16hardAndrey Rublev7-5 7-5
2022-10-10GijonQFhardAndrey Rublev7-5 6-3
2021-05-03Madrid MastersR32clayAndrey Rublev6-7(5) 6-3 6-4
2020-09-21HamburgR16clayAndrey Rublev6-1 3-6 6-2
2018-07-30WashingtonR32hardAndrey Rublev7-6(5) 6-4
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Paul T.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Rublev A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Paul T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paul T.Rublev A.
71
Serve
55
54
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Paul T.Rublev A.
1st serve in·Even
62%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
76%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
67%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Even
64%
66%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.1
7.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (199 vs 199). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Paul T.Rublev A.
Clutch Rating·Even
93
89
Break points saved·Even
99
100
Break points won·Clear edge
87
72
Deciding sets·Even
98
97
Tiebreaks·Even
96
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Paul T.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Rublev A.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.4+33 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Hard Elo 1849
5.5Overall Elo 1949
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1902
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.8
Surface form
8.0
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
8.7
Minutes 14d
7.1
7.0
3-set count
7.0
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
7.1
Country comfort
5.6
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Paul T.Rublev A.
Freshness·Slight edge
88
95

Paul T.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Rublev A.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
35°COvercast
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 12%
Final
Norrie C.[21]
Basilashvili N.[29]
3-66-46-1
Semi-finals
Basilashvili N.[29]
Fritz T.[31]
7-656-3
Norrie C.[21]
Dimitrov G.[23]
6-26-4
Quarter-finals
Basilashvili N.[29]
Tsitsipas S.[2]
6-42-66-4
Fritz T.[31]
Zverev A.[3]
4-66-37-63
Norrie C.[21]
Schwartzman D.[11]
6-06-2
Dimitrov G.[23]
Hurkacz H.[8]
3-66-47-62
R16
Tsitsipas S.[2]
De Minaur A.[22]
6-737-636-2
Basilashvili N.[29]
Khachanov K.[24]
6-47-66
Zverev A.[3]
Monfils G.[14]
6-16-3
Fritz T.[31]
Sinner J.[10]
6-46-3
Schwartzman D.[11]
Ruud C.[6]
6-36-3
Norrie C.[21]
Paul T.
6-44-66-2
Hurkacz H.[8]
Karatsev A.[19]
6-16-3
Dimitrov G.[23]
Medvedev D.[1]
4-66-46-3
R32
Sinner J.[10]
Isner J.[20]
W/O
Tsitsipas S.[2]
Fognini F.[25]
2-66-36-4
Khachanov K.[24]
Carreno Busta P.[12]
6-06-4
De Minaur A.[22]
Garin C.[13]
6-46-2
Basilashvili N.[29]
Ramos A.
4-67-626-2
Zverev A.[3]
Murray A.
6-47-64
Monfils G.[14]
Anderson K.
7-56-2
Fritz T.[31]
Berrettini M.[5]
6-46-3
Ruud C.[6]
Harris L.[26]
6-746-46-4
Schwartzman D.[11]
Evans D.[18]
5-76-46-0
Norrie C.[21]
Bautista Agut R.[15]
6-45-76-3
Karatsev A.[19]
Shapovalov D.[9]
7-56-2
Paul T.
Rublev A.[4]
6-43-67-5
Hurkacz H.[8]
Tiafoe F.
6-36-2
Dimitrov G.[23]
Opelka R.[16]
6-36-4
Medvedev D.[1]
Krajinovic F.[27]
6-27-61
R64
Anderson K.
Sonego L.[17]
7-677-63
Shapovalov D.[9]
Pospisil V.
3-0
Tsitsipas S.[2]
Martinez P.
6-26-4
Fognini F.[25]
Struff J.
6-44-66-3
De Minaur A.[22]
Vukic A.
6-47-5
Garin C.[13]
Escobedo E.
7-56-2
Carreno Busta P.[12]
Gomez E.
6-16-4
Khachanov K.[24]
Ruusuvuori E.
6-27-5
Basilashvili N.[29]
Eubanks C.
6-46-3
Ramos A.
Auger Aliassime F.[7]
6-46-2
Zverev A.[3]
Brooksby J.
6-43-66-1
Murray A.
Alcaraz C.[30]
5-76-36-2
Monfils G.[14]
Mager G.
6-46-2
Sinner J.[10]
Millman J.
6-26-2
Isner J.[20]
Nishioka Y.
6-36-4
Fritz T.[31]
Nakashima B.
6-36-4
Schwartzman D.[11]
Cressy M.
6-23-67-5
Berrettini M.[5]
Tabilo A.
6-47-5
Ruud C.[6]
Carballes Baena R.
6-16-2
Harris L.[26]
Davidovich Fokina A.
6-36-3
Evans D.[18]
Nishikori K.
4-66-36-4
Bautista Agut R.[15]
Pella G.
7-56-3
Norrie C.[21]
Sandgren T.
6-45-76-0
Paul T.
Lajovic D.[28]
6-26-3
Hurkacz H.[8]
Popyrin A.
6-17-5
Tiafoe F.
Korda S.[32]
6-06-4
Karatsev A.[19]
Caruso S.
6-06-2
Opelka R.[16]
Daniel T.
7-56-3
Dimitrov G.[23]
Altmaier D.
6-46-2
Medvedev D.[1]
Mcdonald M.
6-46-2
Rublev A.[4]
Taberner C.
6-36-4
Krajinovic F.[27]
Giron M.
7-627-5
R128
Nishioka Y.
Delbonis F.
6-33-67-62
Ruusuvuori E.
Koepfer D.
6-736-26-0
Eubanks C.
Gerasimov E.
6-36-3
Anderson K.
Thompson J.
7-56-2
Mager G.
Fucsovics M.
1-66-36-2
Millman J.
Sock J.
7-54-66-3
Nakashima B.
Coria F.
6-36-2
Tabilo A.
Kudla D.
6-17-60
Cressy M.
Djere L.
6-736-17-5
Carballes Baena R.
Olivo R.
7-57-5
Nishikori K.
Sousa J.
6-756-36-2
Pella G.
Kwon S.
1-66-36-4
Sandgren T.
Monteiro T.
6-46-3
Taberner C.
Munar J.
6-36-3
Popyrin A.
Kecmanovic M.
6-37-64
Tiafoe F.
Paire B.
6-46-4
Caruso S.
Svajda Z.
6-36-1
Daniel T.
Kohlschreiber P.
6-26-4
Pospisil V.
Wolf J.
6-44-66-4
Altmaier D.
Querrey S.
6-26-4
Giron M.
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-776-26-4
Mcdonald M.
Duckworth J.
6-36-3
Paul T.
Lopez F.
6-37-63
Davidovich Fokina A.
Johnson S.
6-756-37-5
Martinez P.
Marcora R.
6-46-0
Struff J.
Galan D.
7-646-3
Vukic A.
Andujar P.
7-56-4
Escobedo E.
Rune H.
6-46-1
Gomez E.
Bagnis F.
6-36-1
Ramos A.
Musetti L.
6-16-3
Brooksby J.
Ilkel C.
7-656-4
Murray A.
Mannarino A.
6-36-2