Juan Pablo Varillas vs Sebastian BaezSantiago 1 CH Final

Santiago 1 CH · CHALLENGER · Final
#279ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 4 October 2021
clay
#56ATP
1759ELO
1718Clay ELO
$924kYTD
$6.9MCAREER
25 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWWWW
Varillas J.
6-4 7-5
Baez S.
Varillas J.
672
Baez S.
450

Juan Pablo Varillas defeated Sebastian Baez 6-4 7-5 in the Santiago 1 CH final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Sebastian Baez came in ranked #56, leading the head-to-head 4–1. Juan Pablo Varillas narrowed the head-to-head to 4–2.

Key context

Head to head

14
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-02-26SantiagoR16claySebastian Baez4-6 6-4 6-2
2023-05-08Rome MastersR128claySebastian Baez7-5 6-3
2023-02-20Rio de JaneiroR16claySebastian Baez7-5 7-6(6)
2022-02-21SantiagoR32claySebastian Baez6-4 6-4
2021-07-12HamburgQ2clayJuan Pablo Varillas6-2 3-6 7-6(0)

Serve vs return

This season
Varillas J.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Baez S.

Baez S.serving66% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Varillas J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on clay

Varillas J.Baez S.
Serve
7
Return
43

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
59%
72%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
60%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Even
59%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.8
2.0
Double faults / match·Even
1.8
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
55
87
Break points saved·Clear edge
80
96
Break points won·Dominant
43
86
Deciding sets·Dominant
63
88
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
72
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 28 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
2.0Clay Elo 1431
Surface ELO
8.0+287 Clay Elo edge
1.6Overall Elo 1440
ELO gap
8.4Overall Elo 1759
3.1
H2H
6.9
7.6
Surface form
6.7
Fatigue & Travel
3.9
Minutes 14d
7.0
3-set count
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0
Opponent rise
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
62
100

Varillas J.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 84 games (7d) · Baez S.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast