Madison Keys vs Aryna Sabalenka — Berlin Round of 16
Madison Keys defeated Aryna Sabalenka 6-4 1-6 7-5 in the Berlin round of 16 on grass. The upset overturned the form book — Aryna Sabalenka came in ranked #2. Madison Keys extended the head-to-head to 2–1.
Key context
- Match story: Madison Keys closed it out in three sets, 6–4 1–6 7–5.
How the match was decided
Auto-generatedKeys M. came through in three sets.
Common opponents
8 shared · last 12 monthsKeys M. and Sabalenka A. faced 8 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Keys M. went 1–7 (13%) against them, Sabalenka A. 8–3 (73%). Sabalenka A. came out clearly better against 6 of 6 comparable opponents, Keys M. against 0 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (retirement).
1–713%Keys M. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents8–373%Sabalenka A. · better vs 6
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
2–15Sets17–6
58–94Games123–90
0–2Tiebreaks1–1
1–0Deciding sets0–2
vs Sakkari M.#33L2-6 2-6Doha · hardW6-3 6-2Abu Dhabi · hard
vs Zhang S.#55L3-6 6-7Roland Garros · clayW6-2 6-2Stuttgart · clay
vs Pavlyuchenkova A.#642L5-7 2-6Madrid · clayW6-2 6-3Madrid · clay
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vs Konjuh A.#936L4-6 2-6Miami · hardW6-4 6-3Roland Garros · clay
vs Jabeur O.L4-6 1-6Cincinnati · hardL6-7 6-2 3-6Roland Garros · clay
vs Cornet A.L6-7 2-3US Open · hardW6-2 6-4Dubai · hard- vs Dodin O.#312Hard to compareW6-3 3-6 6-1Roland Garros · clayW6-3 3-3Linz · hard
vs Azarenka V.#455Hard to compareL2-6 2-6Roland Garros · clayL1-6 3-6US Open · hard
Head-to-head
3 meetings · Keys M. leads 2–121
Grass: Keys M. leads 2–0 · Hard: Sabalenka A. leads 1–0
- Keys M.June 2021BerlinThis matchGrass6-4 1-6 7-5
- Keys M.June 2021BerlinGrass6-4 1-6 7-5
- Sabalenka A.August 2018CincinnatiHard6-3 6-4
Closing odds
Player context
Before the matchKeys M.Sabalenka A.2 086ELO2 3201 732Grass ELO1 7346–4Last 108–226Age23178 cmHeight182 cmRightPlaysRightCareer $25.0M2026 $1.7MEarningsCareer $50.4M2026 $5.2M