Jessica Pegula vs Jasmine PaoliniHouston Round of 32

Houston · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
0 — 0
Sets
Monday, 12 November 2018
hard
#15WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Pegula J.
7-6 6-2
Paolini J.
Pegula J.
71062
Paolini J.
682

Jessica Pegula defeated Jasmine Paolini 7-6 6-2 in the Houston round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 4–1. Jessica Pegula extended the head-to-head to 5–1.

Key context

Head to head

41
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardJessica Pegula6-2 6-3
2025-09-19BJK Cup FinalsRRhardJasmine Paolini6-4 6-2
2023-08-07MontrealR16hardJessica Pegula6-4 6-0
2022-04-04CharlestonR32clayJessica Pegula6-2 6-1
2021-10-06Indian WellsR32hardJessica Pegula6-4 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving63% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving54% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Pegula J.Paolini J.
68
Serve
31
73
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Even
58%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.0
1.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
96
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
87
Break points won·Even
99
99
Deciding sets·Even
100
97
Tiebreaks·Even
96
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
79
79

Pegula J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Paolini J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast