Jasmine Paolini vs Jessica PegulaBJK Cup Finals Round Robin

BJK Cup Finals · WTA · Round Robin
#15WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 19 September 2025
hard
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
Paolini J.
6-4 6-2
Pegula J.
Paolini J.
662
Pegula J.
420

Jasmine Paolini defeated Jessica Pegula 6-4 6-2 in the BJK Cup Finals round robin on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #3, leading the head-to-head 4–0, but Jasmine Paolini had arrived on a 4-match winning run. Jasmine Paolini claimed a first win over Jessica Pegula in five meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

04
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardJessica Pegula6-2 6-3
2023-08-07MontrealR16hardJessica Pegula6-4 6-0
2022-04-04CharlestonR32clayJessica Pegula6-2 6-1
2021-10-06Indian WellsR32hardJessica Pegula6-4 6-1

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Pegula J.serving79% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paolini J.Pegula J.
31
Serve
68
55
Return
73

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
57%
62%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.5
3.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.6
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (74 vs 97). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
96
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
96
Break points won·Even
99
99
Deciding sets·Even
97
100
Tiebreaks·Even
93
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 43 days (−0.7)
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 43 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
2.8Hard Elo 1873
Surface ELO
7.2+186 Hard Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 2097
0.0
H2H
10.0
8.1
Surface form
5.8
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Context
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
79
79

Paolini J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Pegula J.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast