Jessica Pegula vs Jasmine Paolini — Indian Wells Round of 32

Indian Wells · WTA · Round of 32
Jessica Pegula
USA19
Jessica Pegula
#4WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$2.8MYTD
$25MCAREER
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 6 October 2021
hard
Jasmine Paolini
ITA
Jasmine Paolini
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Pegula J.
6-4 6-1
Paolini J.
Pegula J.
662
Paolini J.
410

Jessica Pegula defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-4 6-1 in the Indian Wells round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Jessica Pegula came in ranked #4, leading the head-to-head 3–1. Jessica Pegula extended the head-to-head to 4–1.

Key context

Head to head

3–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardJessica Pegula6-2 6-3
2025-09-19BJK Cup FinalsRRhardJasmine Paolini6-4 6-2
2023-08-07MontrealR16hardJessica Pegula6-4 6-0
2022-04-04CharlestonR32clayJessica Pegula6-2 6-1
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Pegula J.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Pegula J.

Serve advantage — Pegula J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Pegula J.Paolini J.
68
Serve
31
73
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Pegula J.Paolini J.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
57%
Return points won·Even
45%
45%
Break points saved·Even
58%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.0
1.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.2
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (200 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Pegula J.Paolini J.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
96
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
96
87
Break points won·Even
99
99
Deciding sets·Even
100
97
Tiebreaks·Even
96
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pegula J.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Paolini J.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.2+186 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.8Hard Elo 1873
7.1Overall Elo 2097
ELO gap
2.9Overall Elo 1905
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.9
Surface form
6.4
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.5
Minutes 14d
9.0
7.0
3-set count
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
7.8
Country comfort
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Pegula J.Paolini J.
Freshness·Even
76
76

Pegula J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d) · Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
32°CPartly cloudy
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 26%

Draw

Final
Badosa P.[21]
Azarenka V.[27]
7-652-67-62
Semi-finals
Badosa P.[21]
Jabeur O.[12]
6-36-3
Azarenka V.[27]
Ostapenko J.[24]
3-66-37-5
Quarter-finals
Jabeur O.[12]
Kontaveit A.[18]
7-56-3
Badosa P.[21]
Kerber A.[10]
6-47-5
Azarenka V.[27]
Pegula J.[19]
6-46-2
Ostapenko J.[24]
Rogers S.
6-44-66-3
R16
Kontaveit A.[18]
Haddad Maia B.
6-06-2
Badosa P.[21]
Krejcikova B.[3]
6-17-5
Rogers S.
Fernandez L.[23]
2-66-17-64
Ostapenko J.[24]
Swiatek I.[2]
6-46-3
Jabeur O.[12]
Kalinskaya A.
6-26-2
Kerber A.[10]
Tomljanovic A.
6-46-1
Azarenka V.[27]
Sasnovich A.
6-36-4
Pegula J.[19]
Svitolina E.[4]
6-16-1
R32
Haddad Maia B.
Pliskova K.[1]
6-37-5
Kontaveit A.[18]
Andreescu B.[16]
7-656-3
Kalinskaya A.
Golubic V.
1-66-16-3
Krejcikova B.[3]
Anisimova A.
6-26-3
Badosa P.[21]
Gauff C.[15]
6-26-2
Tomljanovic A.
Zidansek T.[26]
6-46-3
Azarenka V.[27]
Kvitova P.[7]
7-56-4
Sasnovich A.
Halep S.[11]
7-56-4
Pegula J.[19]
Paolini J.
6-46-1
Kerber A.[10]
Kasatkina D.[20]
6-21-66-4
Svitolina E.[4]
Cirstea S.[32]
4-66-47-63
Fernandez L.[23]
Pavlyuchenkova A.[9]
5-76-36-4
Ostapenko J.[24]
Putintseva Y.
6-32-66-3
Swiatek I.[2]
Kudermetova V.[25]
6-16-0
Rogers S.
Begu I.
6-06-2
Jabeur O.[12]
Collins D.[22]
6-16-3
R64
Kontaveit A.[18]
Trevisan M.
6-35-2
Kalinskaya A.
Sorribes Tormo S.[28]
6-34-66-2
Golubic V.
Sakkari M.[6]
5-76-36-2
Collins D.[22]
Davis L.
6-1
Kasatkina D.[20]
Sharma A.
3-4
Azarenka V.[27]
Linette M.
7-53-0
Svitolina E.[4]
Martincova T.
6-27-5
Kerber A.[10]
Siniakova K.
6-16-747-5
Pliskova K.[1]
Frech M.
7-56-2
Haddad Maia B.
Sherif M.
6-36-0
Jabeur O.[12]
Sevastova A.
6-26-756-3
Anisimova A.
Giorgi C.[30]
6-46-1
Badosa P.[21]
Yastremska D.
6-42-66-2
Zidansek T.[26]
Konjuh A.
6-45-76-3
Tomljanovic A.
Muguruza G.[5]
6-31-66-3
Kvitova P.[7]
Rus A.
6-26-2
Gauff C.[15]
Garcia C.
6-36-726-1
Rogers S.
Kucova K.
6-26-2
Sasnovich A.
Raducanu E.[17]
6-26-4
Halep S.[11]
Kostyuk M.
7-626-1
Pegula J.[19]
Stephens S.
6-26-3
Begu I.
Teichmann J.[31]
7-56-1
Fernandez L.[23]
Cornet A.
6-26-3
Pavlyuchenkova A.[9]
Keys M.
6-36-1
Putintseva Y.
Rybakina E.[13]
6-27-65
Ostapenko J.[24]
Hsieh S.
6-36-0
Kudermetova V.[25]
Samsonova L.
6-26-3
Swiatek I.[2]
Martic P.
6-16-3
Andreescu B.[16]
Riske Amritraj A.
7-625-76-2
Krejcikova B.[3]
Diyas Z.
6-43-66-1
Paolini J.
Mertens E.[14]
3-66-46-4
Cirstea S.[32]
Doi M.
6-26-3
R128
Siniakova K.
Clijsters K.
6-12-66-2
Cornet A.
Ruse E.
6-37-65
Samsonova L.
Baindl K.
6-47-66
Martic P.
Volynets K.
6-46-4
Garcia C.
Flipkens K.
5-76-46-0
Sherif M.
Kovinic D.
6-16-3
Davis L.
Parrizas Diaz N.
6-27-5
Frech M.
Zheng S.
6-16-4
Trevisan M.
Bouzkova M.
6-46-786-4
Riske Amritraj A.
Liang E.
6-26-2
Sevastova A.
Hercog P.
3-66-26-0
Kalinskaya A.
Liu C.
6-32-66-1
Golubic V.
Vondrousova M.
6-14-66-3
Diyas Z.
Hibino N.
6-36-3
Anisimova A.
Scott K.
6-16-1
Sharma A.
Vekic D.
6-42-66-3
Konjuh A.
Schmiedlova A.
6-26-2
Tomljanovic A.
Arconada U.
6-06-2
Martincova T.
Krueger A.
6-27-61
Rogers S.
Kalinina A.
7-626-2
Rus A.
Parks A.
6-06-1
Begu I.
Ferro F.
6-27-62
Linette M.
Peterson R.
3-66-36-2
Keys M.
Kanepi K.
6-07-5
Putintseva Y.
Petkovic A.
7-626-1
Hsieh S.
Brengle M.
6-17-64
Doi M.
Li A.
6-25-77-5
Yastremska D.
Jacquemot E.
6-26-4
Sasnovich A.
Osorio C.
6-06-4
Kostyuk M.
Zhang S.
6-31-66-2
Paolini J.
Hontama M.
6-03-66-2
Stephens S.
Watson H.
6-757-56-1