Upset Audit

WTA Tour Washington 2026: the biggest upsets

The most surprising results of WTA Tour Washington 2026 in United States, ranked by the Umpiry Surprise Score— 100 minus the winner's frozen pre-match win probability. The higher the score, the bigger the shock. Tap any result for the full match.

1

Samsonova L.def.Keys M.

WTA Tour Washington 2026 — Round of 323-6 6-4 6-4

Pre-match WP: Samsonova L. 29% · Keys M. 71%

71

Umpiry
Surprise Score

2

Eala A.def.Pegula J.

WTA Tour Washington 2026 — Final6-4 4-6 0-6

Pre-match WP: Eala A. 29% · Pegula J. 71%

71

Umpiry
Surprise Score

The Umpiry Surprise Score uses a calibrated win probability frozen at match start, never recomputed in hindsight. Only genuine shocks are listed — main-draw results where the winner was a clear underdog (Surprise Score 70+, i.e. a pre-match win probability of 30% or below). It is statistical information, not a betting recommendation.