Upset Audit

WTA Tour Cincinnati 2026: the biggest upsets

The most surprising results of WTA Tour Cincinnati 2026 in United States, ranked by the Umpiry Surprise Score— 100 minus the winner's frozen pre-match win probability. The higher the score, the bigger the shock. Tap any result for the full match.

1

Wang X.def.Fernandez L.

WTA Tour Cincinnati 2026 — Round of 643-6 6-2 6-2

Pre-match WP: Wang X. 7% · Fernandez L. 93%

93

Umpiry
Surprise Score

2

Bejlek S.def.Sabalenka A.

WTA Tour Cincinnati 2026 — Round of 167-6(7) 6-4

Pre-match WP: Bejlek S. 9% · Sabalenka A. 91%

91

Umpiry
Surprise Score

3

Stephens S.def.Potapova A.

WTA Tour Cincinnati 2026 — Round of 646-2 6-4

Pre-match WP: Stephens S. 25% · Potapova A. 75%

75

Umpiry
Surprise Score

4

Boisson L.def.Krueger A.

WTA Tour Cincinnati 2026 — Round of 1286-3 6-2

Pre-match WP: Boisson L. 28% · Krueger A. 72%

72

Umpiry
Surprise Score

5

Parry D.def.Mertens E.

WTA Tour Cincinnati 2026 — Round of 642-6 6-2 6-2

Pre-match WP: Parry D. 29% · Mertens E. 71%

71

Umpiry
Surprise Score

The Umpiry Surprise Score uses a calibrated win probability frozen at match start, never recomputed in hindsight. Only genuine shocks are listed — main-draw results where the winner was a clear underdog (Surprise Score 70+, i.e. a pre-match win probability of 30% or below). It is statistical information, not a betting recommendation.