Upset Audit

ATP Tour Washington 2026: the biggest upsets

The most surprising results of ATP Tour Washington 2026 in United States, ranked by the Umpiry Surprise Score— 100 minus the winner's frozen pre-match win probability. The higher the score, the bigger the shock. Tap any result for the full match.

1

Mannarino A.def.Tien L.

ATP Tour Washington 2026 — Round of 327-5 6-4

Pre-match WP: Mannarino A. 17% · Tien L. 83%

83

Umpiry
Surprise Score

2

Majchrzak K.def.Paul T.

ATP Tour Washington 2026 — Round of 327-5 7-6(4)

Pre-match WP: Majchrzak K. 22% · Paul T. 78%

78

Umpiry
Surprise Score

3

Hewitt C.def.Giron M.

ATP Tour Washington 2026 — Round of 323-6 4-6

Pre-match WP: Hewitt C. 25% · Giron M. 75%

75

Umpiry
Surprise Score

4

Atmane T.def.Tiafoe F.

ATP Tour Washington 2026 — Round of 326-4 3-6 4-6

Pre-match WP: Atmane T. 27% · Tiafoe F. 73%

73

Umpiry
Surprise Score

5

Vukic A.def.Svajda Z.

ATP Tour Washington 2026 — Round of 326-3 6-1

Pre-match WP: Vukic A. 27% · Svajda Z. 73%

73

Umpiry
Surprise Score

The Umpiry Surprise Score uses a calibrated win probability frozen at match start, never recomputed in hindsight. Only genuine shocks are listed — main-draw results where the winner was a clear underdog (Surprise Score 70+, i.e. a pre-match win probability of 30% or below). It is statistical information, not a betting recommendation.