Upset Audit

ATP Tour Cincinnati 2026: the biggest upsets

The most surprising results of ATP Tour Cincinnati 2026 in United States, ranked by the Umpiry Surprise Score— 100 minus the winner's frozen pre-match win probability. The higher the score, the bigger the shock. Tap any result for the full match.

1

Landaluce M.def.Draper J.

ATP Tour Cincinnati 2026 — Round of 1286-3 7-5

Pre-match WP: Landaluce M. 20% · Draper J. 80%

80

Umpiry
Surprise Score

2

Vallejo A.def.Vacherot V.

ATP Tour Cincinnati 2026 — Round of 646-3 6-3

Pre-match WP: Vallejo A. 21% · Vacherot V. 79%

79

Umpiry
Surprise Score

3

Tirante T.def.Djokovic N.

ATP Tour Cincinnati 2026 — Round of 646-2 4-6 4-6

Pre-match WP: Tirante T. 22% · Djokovic N. 78%

78

Umpiry
Surprise Score

4

Paul T.def.Zverev A.

ATP Tour Cincinnati 2026 — Round of 166-4 6-7(6) 4-6

Pre-match WP: Paul T. 24% · Zverev A. 76%

76

Umpiry
Surprise Score

5

Kovacevic A.def.Khachanov K.

ATP Tour Cincinnati 2026 — Round of 1285-7 6-3 7-6

Pre-match WP: Kovacevic A. 25% · Khachanov K. 75%

75

Umpiry
Surprise Score

6

Trungelliti M.def.Medjedovic H.

ATP Tour Cincinnati 2026 — Round of 1285-7 6-7

Pre-match WP: Trungelliti M. 25% · Medjedovic H. 75%

75

Umpiry
Surprise Score

7

Tirante T.def.Mensik J.

ATP Tour Cincinnati 2026 — Round of 165-7 6-4 6-4

Pre-match WP: Tirante T. 26% · Mensik J. 74%

74

Umpiry
Surprise Score

8

Faria J.def.Shelton B.

ATP Tour Cincinnati 2026 — Round of 644-6 4-6

Pre-match WP: Faria J. 28% · Shelton B. 72%

72

Umpiry
Surprise Score

The Umpiry Surprise Score uses a calibrated win probability frozen at match start, never recomputed in hindsight. Only genuine shocks are listed — main-draw results where the winner was a clear underdog (Surprise Score 70+, i.e. a pre-match win probability of 30% or below). It is statistical information, not a betting recommendation.